CORN
Summary: weather risk (WX) implied market trends - near term neutral to slightly bearish, medium term neutral to slightly bullish
Current WX warnings/watches for global corn: warnings - Brazil corn - minimum temperature (severe warning), dryness and heat (moderate warnings), Argentina corn - wet (moderate warning)
Brazil
On average Brazilian first crop corn growing areas have seen a slight positive cumulative departure in precipitation since September 1st, 2023, with periods of dryness in December, but moving away from analog year 2015, and closer to 2018. While temperature extremes played a big part in early seasonal WX, the last 60 days have seen on generally above average temperatures but not as extreme as expected, with a positive departure of between +2 to +3 degrees C over the last 60 days. Showers over the last 10 days in western Bahia and northern Minas Gerais have been favorable to growing conditions, fostering an increase in yield potential. Drier trends are expected to return to this region days 3-15 of the forecast, as indicated below, showing a negative total precipitation departures for much of the corn growing area. Southern Brazil is expected to be drier and warmer over the next 5-7 days, then rains are expected to return to increase yield potential.
Marcus Weather Inc. forecast Brazil first crop corn production is slightly above CONAB. Issues arise due to the collateral impact of crop calendar delays for soy, which is expected to have a negative impact on Safrinha corn production. Expected losses for both planting area and yield due to a further shortening of the growing season. Marcus Weather Inc. forecast total Brazilian area 0.4 m ha below CONAB and well below current USDA estimate - leading to a total Brazilian corn production differential of between -10 to -15 mmt compared to USDA estimates - (contact Marcus Weather for exact yield estimates).
Argentina
Weather conditions over the last 60 days have been moderately favorable to Argentinian corn, with no areas of extreme heat or persistent dryness (the reverse of previous years - 2023, 2021 and 2020, where precipitation failed to materialize from December onward). Current total precipitation cumulative departure since November 1st, 2023 is in close proximity to the 10 year rolling average. Dryness was starting to build in the area until early January rains across Cordoba and southern Santa Fe brought relief. Seasonal precipitation levels were closely tracking analog year 2015, but now moving away in a positive direction. Todays forecast calls for normal temperatures and above normal rainfall (as indicated below - with moderate wet warnings), with showers across key growing areas, 200+ percentage normal for mid January. Argentina corn area estimates are 0.3 m ha below USDA, but production numbers are above the USDA, with a potential for a small increase in yield with continuing improved weather conditions.
South Africa
South Africa corn growing areas have seen fluctuations in precipitation amounts since October 1st, 2023, with periods of dryness (November), before rain events mid and late December, replenishing soil moisture levels and bringing cumulative precipitation to above the 10 year rolling average as of early January 2024. Since December, maximum temperatures have also been oscillating, with various cool periods, dropping maximum temperatures into the low 20s (degrees C). Light showers and relatively moderate temperatures are expected to continue for the majority of the growing region over the next 7 days, which is favorable to vegetative growth, before a steady increase in maximum temperatures through days 7-15 of the forecast, in to the low 30s by mid-late January, coupled with drier trends for the western half of the corn growing area. Marcus Weather Inc. forecast South Africa corn production above the USDA.
Marcus Weather Inc. is a data research company, providing global weather risk consultation services to hedge funds and food producers. We also offer low-cost access to weather risk applications, such as Marcus Weather Mapping (MWM), a weather and satellite imagery platform designed for the commodities industry and WEATHER ALARM, an interactive weather data application, allowing users to create and be alerted to predefined weather scenarios for user specified points or locations across the globe, for a designated time period.
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