Front month soybean futures are trading with 3 to 7 cent losses so far this morning. That has the March contract at a net 56 ¼ cent loss since gapping lower to start the year – during which, OI across all contracts has increased by 50k contracts (6.2%). Soy oil futures led the beans higher with 1.3% to 1.4% gains on the day. Soybean futures were 2 to 5 ½ cents higher at the close yesterday, ended 0.2% to 0.5% in the black for the day. Soymeal futures closed $0.90 in the red.
There were zero delivery notices vs. January meal overnight, with 59 put out against January BO. There were 13 vs. January soybeans, but none to commercial stoppers this time around.
Analysts are looking for NASS to report 2.976 bbu for Dec 1 bean stocks. That would be 1.5% tighter than last year with a 3% lighter supply total – barring adjustments to crop size or imports.
Census data showed 7.464 MMT of soybeans were officially exported during November. That was down 24% from Nov 2022 and was a 4-yr low for the month. The official Q1 soybean export was 713.3 mbu, compared to 801.8 mbu last year.
Pre-report estimates for the Jan WASDE report show analysts are looking soybean carryout to be reported at 242.3 mbu on average. The production figure is expected to be 4.122 bbu on average, down 7mbu via to be 0.1 bpa lower yield estimate.
AgRural reported soybean harvest at 6% finished for the Center-South Region of Brazil. That compares to 0.4% at the same time last year. Overall Brazilian harvest is less than 1% completed. Safras y Mercado estimated the Brazilian soybean crop at 151.4 MMT, down from their 158.2 MMT forecast in December and now 4.1% lower yr/yr.
Mar 24 Soybeans closed at $12.48 1/2, up 3 cents, currently down 6 3/4 cents
Nearby Cash was $11.92 3/8, up 3 cents,
May 24 Soybeans closed at $12.58 3/4, up 4 cents, currently down 5 3/4 cents
Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $12.66 1/2, up 4 3/4 cents, currently down 5 1/2 cents
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