After the Turnaround Tuesday session, Wednesday trading has begun mostly red with an overnight range from -2 ¾ to +½ cents. AM prices are 1 ¾ to 2 ½ cents weaker. The Tuesday corn market finished with 3 ½ to 4 ¼ cent gains as March ended just 1 ¼ cents off the session high. The Turnaround Tuesday session ended with March still sitting a net 1 ½ cents weaker for the week. Dec was a 33 ½ cent premium to the March contract.
Traders are looking for NASS to report 12.013 bbu on Dec 1. That would be 11% looser than last year on a 10% larger supply – barring adjustments to production / imports.
USDA reported 856,597 MT of corn was exported during the week that ended 1/4. USDA listed the season’s total at 12.8 MMT via the weekly data. The monthly Census data had a 3.57 MMT shipped for November. That has the official Q1 export at 375.9 mbu, compared to 281.9 mbu last year. The official Nov milo export was 583,105 MT. That set the season’s total at 1.105 MMT for the first three months, compared to 407k MT last year.
AgRural had summer corn planting at 3.3% finished for the Center-South region. That compares to 2.3% for the same region of Brazil last year. Mosaic expects Brazil’s 2024 fertilizer demand will be 46 MMT, up from their prior estimate of 45 MMT and 45.8 MMT last year.
Pre-WASDE report forecasts show the trade is looking for between a 180 mbu cut and a 122 mbu increase for corn carryout. The average trade guess is to see a 37 mbu cut to 2.094 mbu in the Jan 12 release. USDA has tweaked the corn production figure in the Jan report for all but 2 of the January reports since 1991, with traders on average expecting a 166 mbu cut this go-around. That comes via an expected harvested acre trim to 87 million flat and a 0.2 bpa yield hit to 174.7 bpa on average. The full range of estimates is from 15.068 bbu to 15.364 bbu from the 15.234 in Dec.
Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.59 1/4, up 4 1/4 cents, currently down 2 1/4 cents
Nearby Cash was $4.33 3/4, up 4 1/2 cents,
May 24 Corn closed at $4.71 1/2, up 4 cents, currently down 2 1/4 cents
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.82, up 4 cents, currently down 2 cents
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