Soybean futures are starting off Friday with 6 ¼ to 8 cents lower. Soy complex futures were mixed on USDA’s report day, with a Soy oil rally. The triple digit gains of as much as 2.5% in BO helped soybeans stay in the black as well. Front month soybean futures were 1 ¾ to 4 ½ cents higher at the bell. Soymeal futures closed the session with $4.10 to $5.10 losses.. USDA reduced the estimated cash average price for soybeans by a dime to $12.65, the soy oil price by 3 cents to 51 c/lb, and left the meal price UNCH at $380/ton.
Canadian canola stocks were confirmed at 12.85 MMT as of December 31 via the StatsCan data release. That was below the average of pre-report estimates, but within the range and was 1.3% above Dec ’22.
USDA’s updated WASDE data had 35 mbu fewer soybean exports, which built carryout by the same amount. The only other S&D adjustment was a 1 mbu larger seed use, which came out of residual use. The trade was on average looking for hike to ending stocks, but at 315 mbu we’re looking at the largest number since 2019/20.
The global updates reduced world soybean output by 770k MT to 398.2 MMT. USDA cut Brazil by 1 MMT to 156, though CONAB cut Brazil’s soybean production 5.9 MMT to 149.4 MMT - via a yield cut of 1.7 bpa to 51. It’s worth noting that USDA found another 2 MMT of old crop Brazilian bean production, raising this year’s beginning stocks. World bean trade was 370k MT lower to 170.6 MMT, with stocks 1.43 MMT looser at 116 MMT. The trade was expecting to see a 113 MMT carryout but did not anticipate the old crop Brazilian revision.
Weekly FAS data showed soybean bookings were 341k MT for the week that ended 2/1. Estimates were to see at least 400k MT. Soybean commitments now sit at 38.454 MMT compared to 47.1 MMT last year.
Mar 24 Soybeans closed at $11.93 1/2, up 4 1/2 cents, currently down 8 cents
Nearby Cash was $11.40 1/4, up 4 3/8 cents,
May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.99 3/4, up 2 1/4 cents, currently down 7 3/4 cents
Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $12.09 1/4, up 2 1/4 cents, currently down 7 3/4 cents
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