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Phillip Streible, Chief Market Strategist
[TRANSCRIPT]
Good morning. It’s Friday, February 9th, above 6 a.m. Central Time. All right. The precious metals are mixed after yesterday’s volatile session. April Gold down one at 2046, March, Silver up $0.11 to 75. March, copper down 1 to 3.69. April Platinum down six at 887. The high on that overnight was 899. Couldn’t punch through that 900 level And then your march palladium at 893.
The interesting thing about platinum and palladium is that palladium dipped below platinum since the first time since 2018. The concerns are Asian and European automotive demand. So that’s the reason why we’re having this sell off. And we’re also having a narrowing of the spread between the two. Now, if you look at some other things here, some other observations, we look at, the gold silver ratio jumped back up to about 92 to 1 yesterday.
If you rewind last week when Silver hit its recent contract low, we saw a massive influx of buying into silver. Well, that same buyer looks to it that they had come back here yesterday because at one point we saw about a 50 cent move upwards in the silver market, kind of seemingly out of nowhere. So we’re getting to some value zones.
And I really think one of the catalyst parts that are playing is that they anticipate that China might come in with some revisions upward on some economic data or perhaps they come in and they provide some kind of additional stimulus measures. So if the wait and see on that, that’s being a bit optimistic on my part. Now, if you look at the gold ETF, it has 15 straight days of outflows, and that’s the reason why gold is just kind of lackluster right now.
You need this breakout over 2073 in order to have a sustainable rally. Back to the upside. I think if you get that breakout, you’ll see really an influx of buyers in there and you’ll see people start to chase that market again. And dissipating a breach of 2100 and then ultimately up to those contract highs. Now, if you look at one of the best charts out there, and if you want to tick a chart, print it off, slap it on the wall and say, this is what I like to identify.
It is that recent low that we saw in Bitcoin dipping below 40,000 started to rise. From there we saw the consolidation, the breakout to the upside and Bitcoin up taking out another $2,000 in the overnight session, 47,780 on that February contract. Now, finally, a Etherium has also broken out to the upside, breaching the 20 $500 level sitting at 2530 last on that February contract.
Some other things to note. We saw a nice recovery in the crude oil market coming off of those lows, shooting up here yesterday and back over $76 on that March contract. Now, some other things you’re going to want to look at 7:30 a.m., we’re going to a big number come out. It’s the annual revisions to CPI. So the updated for seasonal factors now but recalculated to reflect price movements in 2023.
The annual revisions cause monthly inflation readings to be revised towards more of an average an annual average. So in other words, higher inflation readings tend to be revised lower and lower inflation readings tend to be revised higher. So we’ll see what happens there. It could be a little bit of a volatile session there. Also, you’re going to have Dallas Fed President Logan.
He’s a non non voter of the FOMC. He’s also going to speak. So he noted that the FOMC, it doesn’t maintain significantly tighter conditions, that there’s risk that inflation will pick up and it’s going to reverse some of the progress that’s being made. So he is a bit of a hawk there. So you look at some other things.
We are going to have a you a regular U.S. CPI print come out next Tuesday. So that’s something you’re going to want to keep an eye on. Remember, everyone’s looking at this annual CPI revision and our annual yeah, annual revision. And then also the two inflation data points ahead of that March decision on the next interest rate cut.
Now, I still think a couple of things could happen that could cause the Fed to actually cut. One of them is this property crisis that’s continuing to spread. And then the also say the other thing is that we have the problems within the banking sector, the regional banking sector in the U.S. So really this commercial real estate contagion, it’s already moving over to Europe in a lot of like the Chinese developers are scrambling to liquidate, liquidate assets, liquidate real estate, and also try and bring up some of the capital that they are out right now.
So they’re trying to really do some offerings and things like that. So it sounds like a complete scramble. But if you’re looking at some things in the U.S. monitor that New York City Bancorp, that’s the one that is really impacted the most, dropped down to like $4.20. And we saw that thing halted a couple of days ago. We saw a big spike up at the gold market.
Last time there was a crisis in a banking center sector. In March, we saw gold futures shoot up about $175 in six days. So you guys got any questions? Give me a call. 3128587303. Remember, futures option trading tells them all risk loss buying up. Simple tell investors good luck, good trading.
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