Grain Markets Mixed Ahead of End of Quarter

rterly Stocks Report Estimates
The USDA will release their quarterly grain stocks report today at 11am CT. Below are the estimates. Looking at price action over the last 10 years for corn and soybeans, this report has been a coinflip with each grain posting 5 higher closes and 5 lower closes on report day.

Corn

Technicals (December)

Corn futures traded to their highest levels since July in last Friday's trade, but that momentum has fell flat as traders gear up for the last trading day of the month and quarter, that brings along with it a quarterly stocks report. First resistance for today's trade comes in from 419 1/4-419 3/4, above that is a more significant barrier from 423 3/4-426 1/2. On the flipside, the Bulls will want to defend our pivot pocket from 413 1/2-416 through today's trade. A failure there could trigger additional technical selling pressure.

Technical Levels of Importance

• Resistance: 423 3/4-426 1/2*
• Pivot: 413 1/2-416
• Support: 408 1/2-409**, 401-403 3/4

Commitment of Traders Update
Friday's Commitment of Traders report showed little change in Fund positioning through September 24th. Funds are net short 130,699 futures/options contracts, a significantly smaller position relative to the record that was set in July, -353,983. With a smaller net short position, the risk associated with a short covering rally has been diminished. Not to say that it cannot keep the rally alive, but to note that Funds have powder to add back to the short side if warranted.

Wheat

Technicals (December)

Wheat futures are attempting to chew through first resistance from 582 3/4-584 1/4. The next resistance pocket above there comes in from 596-600, which is a significant pocket. If the Bulls would be able to get over this hurdle, it could accelerate the upward momentum. On the support side, 571 3/4-574 3/4 is the pocket the Bulls want to defend. A failure there and we could see further selling pressue down to 4-star support, which we've outlined as 556 1/4-560 1/2.

Technical Levels of Importance

• Resistance: 582 3/4-584 1/4, 596-600**
• Pivot: 571 3/4-574 3/4
• Support: 556 1/4-560 1/2*

Commitment of Traders Update
Friday's Commitment of Traders report showed funds were net sellers of about 1.5k contracts through September 24th, expanding their net short position to 26,469.

US Wheat Production Estimates
This report will be released at 11am CT on Monday, September 30th.
 

Ready to dig in? 

Subscribe to our daily Grain Express for fresh insights into Soybeans, Wheat, and Corn. Get our expert technical analysis, proprietary trading levels, and actionable market bias delivered right to your inbox. 

Sign Up for Free Futures Market Research – Blue Line Futures

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

Performance Disclaimer

Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

Disclaimer: The copyright of this article belongs to the original author. Reposting this article is solely for the purpose of information dissemination and does not constitute any investment advice. If there is any infringement, please contact us immediately. We will make corrections or deletions as necessary. Thank you.