Wheat is posting slight gains on Monday morning trade, with contracts up across the main markets. Futures faltered to weakness on Friday across all three exchanges. Chicago SRW futures were down 2 ¾ to 4 ¼ cents on the session, with December holding a 11 ½ cent gain on the week. KC HRW contracts were 1 to 2 1/4 cents lower across the board, with December up 12 ¾ cents since last Friday. MPLS spring wheat was down 2 ¾ to 3 ½ cents on the day, with December up just ¼ cent on the week.
Friday afternoon’s Commitment of Traders report indicated Chicago wheat specs adding 1,436 contracts to their net short position as of 9/24 to 26,469 contracts. In KC wheat, they added 2,460 contracts to that net short at 19,946 contracts as of Tuesday.
On Monday, the USDA will release the annual Small Grains summary, with analysts expecting to seen all wheat production at 1.966 billion bushels, which would be a 16 mbu cut from the previous update in the August Crop Production report. HRW production is seen down 8 mbu to 768 mbu, as SRW output is expected to be steady at 342, and white winter up 1 at 244 mbu according to a Reuters survey of analysts. Spring wheat is pegged at 540 mbu down 4 from August if realized, with Durum down 1 to 76 mbu. We will also get a look at first quarter demand, with September 1 stocks expected to be 1.973 bbu.
The FranceAgriMer estimates the French soft wheat crop at 1% planted as of 9/23. The European Commission estimates the EU wheat production at 114.6 MMT, down 1.5 MMT from the previous month. They trimmed ending stocks by 0.8 MMT to 11.7 MMT. Ukraine’s ag minister estimates the 2024/25 wheat crop at 21.8 MMT, compared to the 22.3 MMT update in the September WASDE from USDA.
Dec 24 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.80, down 4 1/4 cents, currently up 3 1/2 cents
Mar 25 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.00 1/4, down 4 cents, currently up 3 1/4 cents
Dec 24 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.76 3/4, down 2 1/4 cents, currently up 2 1/4 cents
Mar 25 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.91 3/4, down 2 cents, currently up 2 cents
Dec 24 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.08 1/4, down 3 1/4 cents, currently up 3 1/4 cents
Mar 25 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.30 1/4, down 3 1/4 cents, currently up 2 1/4 cents
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