Soybeans got some modestly bull friendly USDA data today, but bears were defending their large short position. Contracts posted steady to 12 cent losses across most months. Deferred contracts beyond August 2025 were fractionally to 7 ¼ cents higher. Soymeal added some pressure to the market, with contracts steady in the deferred to $3.60 lower in the August contract, as July rolled off the board. Soy Oil is ended the day with losses of 44 to 56 points.
On the US side of USDA’s balance sheet update, the WAOB took the old crop soybean ending stocks down 5 mbu to 345 mbu on a cut to imports. The new crop total was trimmed by 20 mbu to 435 mbu. Output was cut by 15 mbu to 4.435 bbu on the drop to 86.1 million planted and 85.3 million harvested acres and yield left at 52 bpa.
Brazil’s soybean production estimate from the USDA this morning was left unchanged at 153 MMT, as CONAB left theirs at 147.33 MMT on Thursday morning. The projected 2024/25 crop was held at 169 MMT, with an initial Safras & Mercado estimate pegging the crop at 171.54 MMT. Both are citing larger acreage. As for Argentina the crop was trimmed by 0.5 to 49.5 MMT. World soybean stocks for the 2023/24 crop were up by just .18 MMT to 111.25 MMT. For new crop the smaller US number helped take the stocks total to 127.76 MMT, a 0.14 MMT drop.
The large managed money spec funds held a record net short position as of July 9 of 172,605 contracts. That was an increase of 31,679 contracts on the week.
Updated NOPA data will be released on Monday, with a Reuters survey of estimates looking for 177.94 mbu of bean crushed in June. That would be a 7.8% increase from last year if realized and a record for the month. Soy oil stocks are projected at 1.669 billion lbs at the end of June.
Chinese customs data showed the country’s June soybean imports at 11.11 MMT, an improvement over the 10 MMT last year. The January through June imports have totaled 48.48 MMT, which is down 2.2% from a year ago.
Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $11.34 1/2, down 8 1/4 cents,
Nearby Cash was $10.72 5/8, down 12 3/4 cents,
Aug 24 Soybeans closed at $11.05, down 12 cents,
Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.65 1/4, down 2 1/2 cents,
New Crop Cash was $10.11 3/4, down 3 cents,
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