Corn futures were hesitant to act on the bullish USDA report on Friday, as contracts closed with steady to 4 cent higher action. Rains in the forecast heading into the middle of July and thus pollination likely put a wet blanket on the bulls excitement.
The monthly WASDE update showed old crop corn stocks at 1.877 billion bushels, down 145 mbu from June. That was on a 75 mbu hike to both exports and feed and residual, and was 120 mbu below the low end of expectations (as the average called for a 27 mbu increase). For new crop, USDA pegged a 5 mbu cut to the carryout at 2.097 bbu, on the lower carryover and an expected increase to production. The balance sheet took the 91.5 million planted and 83.4 million harvested acres from Junes Acreage report, as production was up 240 mbu to 15.100 bbu with yield left at 181 bpa.
On the world side of the equation, the WAOB showed Brazilian 2023/24 production at 122 MMT unchanged from last month. That is still above the 115.86 MMT from CONAB’s estimate on Thursday but below the 125.56 MMT projection from Safras & Mercado. For the 2024/25, USDA was still at 127 MMT, with the initial Safras number pegged at 134.92 MMT. The Argentina 23/24 crop was down 1 MMT to 52 MMT. World ending stocks for the 23/24 marketing year were down 3.26 MMT to 309.13 MMT, as new crop was up 0.87 to 311.64 MMT and in line vs. expectations of an increase.
Friday afternoon’s CFTC report showed spec funds expanding to a record net short position in the week that ended on July 9 to 353,983 contracts. That net short was an additional 17,445 contracts from the week prior. Commercials were net long a record 62,665 contracts on that date.
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.00, down 6 3/4 cents,
Nearby Cash was $3.93 1/8, up 2 1/4 cents,
Sep 24 Corn closed at $4.02, up 1 3/4 cents,
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.14 3/4, up 4 cents,
New Crop Cash was $3.78, up 2 3/4 cents,
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