Soybeans started the first day of the new year with sharp selling pressure of as much as 2.1% through midday. Futures are 3 to 9 cents off their session lows for midday, but still more than 20 cents in the red. Soymeal futures are down by $5.80 to $7.10/ton with 1.8% losses. Soy oil futures are trading 40 to 53 points lower through midday.
Chinese futures were Dalian Soybean Prices gapped lower on Tuesday after their 3-day break, and closed 30 to 60 yuan in the red (roughly 11 ½ to 23 ¼ cents/bu). Their March contract settled at 4,930 (~$19.11/bu) while their Nov contract was 4,841 (~$18.76/bu) at the settle – compared to the 52c inverse in the CBoT futures.
Estimates ahead of the monthly Fats and Oils report show traders are looking for a 200 mbu official crush for November. NOPA members confirmed 189 mbu for Nov ’23, which was a record for the month and was just 740k bu shy of the ATH from Oct ’23. BO stocks are estimated at 1.657 billion lbs ahead of the report.
Weekly Inspections data showed 961,694 MT (35.336 mbu) of soybeans was exported during the week that ended 12/28. That was a 156k MT drop for the week and was down 38% from the same week last year.
Private analysts at StoneX lowered their production forecast for Brazilian soybeans by 9.1 MMT to 152.8 MMT. Which is now below the official 22/23 crop. South America received a lot of rain over the weekend, with totals for the both the Amazon and the border of Peru/Bolivia maxed out on chart’s color scale +135mm (5.3”). NOAA reported 50-115mm for the major growing areas in Brazil, specifically Mato Grosso. The forecast for the upcoming week has +90mm (3 ½”) for the entire Central-Northeast of Brazil, with some 130mm spots in Goias and Minas Gerais. Southern Brazil is expected to miss out.
Jan 24 Soybeans are at $12.71 1/4, down 22 1/4 cents,
Nearby Cash is at $12.17 5/8, down 26 3/4 cents,
Mar 24 Soybeans are at $12.72 1/2, down 25 1/2 cents,
May 24 Soybeans are at $12.80, down 27 1/4 cents,
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Disclosure Policy here.
Disclaimer: The copyright of this article belongs to the original author. Reposting this article is solely for the purpose of information dissemination and does not constitute any investment advice. If there is any infringement, please contact us immediately. We will make corrections or deletions as necessary. Thank you.
