Corn
Technicals (March)
2023 is officially behind us with many perma-bulls are happy to see it in the rearview mirror. For the year, March corn futures were nearly $1.50 lower. For shorter term and opportunistic market participants, there was plenty of opportunity throughout the year on both sides of the market. Typically, the first quarter is relatively slow. Over the last 10 years, corn has averaged an 8 3/4 cent rally from the first trading day of the year to the day before the Prospective Plantings report (last trading day in March). We are fairly optimistic that we could see the corn market hold ground near these levels, but upside expectations are somewhat tempered as there still doesn’t seem to be a lot to get excited about.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 481-484***, 493-496 1/2****
Pivot: 474
Support: 466 1/2-470****
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonal averages for March corn futures (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line).
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders
Below is a snapshot of the most recent Commitment of Traders report which showed Managed Money (Funds) holding a net short position to the tune of roughly 178k contracts, one of the largest net short positions they’ve had since June of 2020.
Soybeans
Technicals (March)
March soybean futures attempted to rally in the last week of the year but fell flat in the final two sessions, settling to the lowest levels since the first half of October. Opening calls are mostly mixed to a hair lower. We will be keeping a close eye on the October 11th and 12th lows which come in at 1282 1/2 and 1282 3/4, respectively. Below that and there is about 20 cents of air beneath, which would take us back to the June 28th low. On the flip side, trendline resistance and our pivot pocket will be the hurdle the Bulls want to get back above to put the ball back in their court.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 1325-1330***, 1340-1342***, 1360-1362**
Pivot: 1316-1320
Support: 1282-1285****, 1262 1/4-1266 1/4
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonal averages for March soybean futures VS this year’s price (black line), updated each Monday.
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders
The most recent commitment of traders report showed funds holding a net long position of 4,767 futures and options contract, broken down that is 70,617 longs VS 65,850 shorts. It is the smallest net long position since the back half of October.
Wheat
Technicals (March)
March Chicago wheat futures had a decent last month of the year as the market was able to rally nearly a dollar from November lows. Will that momentum carry over into the start of the new year? TBD. The Bulls want to see a breakout above 645-650 to spark a bigger rally. On the support side, the Bulls want to defend 608 1/2-611.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 637-639**, 645-650***
Pivot: 618-622
Support: 608 1/2-611***, 591 1/2-595***
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonal averages for March Chicago wheat futures VS this year’s price (black line), updated each Monday.
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Oliver Sloup, VP & Co-Founder, Blue Line Futures
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