Soybean prices are fractionally weaker after initially gaining an additional 8 cents overnight. Meal and oil prices are also backing off into the Friday session. The Thursday soybean market ended the day 9 ½ to 18 cents stronger with May closing just ¾ of a cent under the day’s high. November futures remain at a 12 ½ cent discount to the old crop May price. Soy Oil futures led the way with 101 point gains of over 2.2% on a strong weekly export sales number. Soymeal futures closed with $4 to $5/ton gains. The rally attracted 100 delivery notices vs. March meal, with 105 vs. March bean oil and 33 more vs. March soybeans (again stopped by Bunge).
Preliminary open interest data for soybeans suggests net new buying interest yesterday, rising 6,552 contracts. Meal and BO open interest were both slightly lower.
USDA’s weekly Export Sales report showed 613,534 MT of soybeans were shipped during the week that ended 2/29. That was a 7-week high and was at the upper end of expectations. The season’s commitments hit 39.43 MMT (1.45 bbu), which is now 9% behind last year’s pace (vs -9.9% the week prior).
Census data showed the official U.S. soybean export total was 5.96 MMT in January. That is up from 8.56 MMT last year.
Official Brazilian soybean shipments were 6.61 MMT in February. That was up from 5 MMT during Feb ’23.
Chinese customs data showed 2024 soybean imports are off to a 5-yr low start as 13.04 MMT have been brought in over the first two months.
A pre-report survey for today’s WASDE report puts the average trade guess for soybean carryout at 318.8 mbu, which would be 3.8 mbu looser than last month. The full range of estimates is from 22 mbu tighter to 40 mbu looser. Traders are also looking for USDA to cut Brazilian soy production by 3.2 MMT in the monthly WASDE, with a 1.3 MMT tighter world ending stocks number.
Mar 24 Soybeans closed at $11.57, up 16 3/4 cents, currently down 3/4 cent
Nearby Cash was $11.08 1/1, up 18 3/8 cents,
May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.66 1/4, up 18 cents, currently down 3/4 cent
Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $11.76, up 17 1/4 cents, currently down 1/4 cent
Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $11.53 3/4, up 11 1/2 cents, currently down 1/4 cent
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