“Weather refuses to rescue natural gas and grain traders from the hungry bears"
by Jim Roemer - Meteorologist - Commodity Trading Advisor - Principal, Best Weather Inc. & Climate Predict - Publisher, Weather Wealth Newsletter
February 15, 2024
A major stratospheric warming event can sometimes force very cold weather upon key natural gas heating demand areas. This is what normally happens for late February and March when the AO index goes negative. However, I have “faded” this solution to our WeatherWealth clients (See 2-week free trial period link, below) touting an overall bearish view in natural gas, most of this winter.
Source:WeatherWealth newsletter at www.bestweatherinc.com
The record warm global oceans are contributing to latent heat release (evaporation and more water vapor in the Atmosphere). This is resulting in:
Improved rain chances for Argentina's key soybean growing areas again deeper into February
Northern Brazil rainfall to rescue a coffee crop, beaten down by previous heat and dryness in December-January
A warm global outlook for natural gas regions with weakened LNG exports
In addition, El Niño has actually strengthened a bit again. The SOI index has gone the most negative of the winter due to the MJO phase, You can see here my warm forecast for the month of March from last week:
Source:WeatherWealth newsletter at www.bestweatherinc.com
So… how do you trade natural gas, grains and other markets? After all, the CFTC Commitments of Traders report shows a large net short speculative position (managed money) in many commodities that may be bound for profit-taking. That is what we do at WeatherWealth (short and long range weather forecasts, but also specific trading strategies one cannot get from any meteorologist. For example, we told natural gas clients recently about the price comparison to the warm 2020 winter.
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Thanks for your interest in commodity weather!
Jim Roemer, Scott Mathews, and The Weather Wealth Team
Mr. Roemer owns Best Weather Inc., offering weather-related blogs for commodity traders and farmers. He also is a co-founder of Climate Predict, a detailed long-range global weather forecast tool. As one of the first meteorologists to become an NFA registered Commodity Trading Advisor, he has worked with major hedge funds, Midwest farmers, and individual traders for over 35 years. With a special emphasis on interpreting market psychology, coupled with his short and long-term trend forecasting in grains, softs, and the energy markets, he established a unique standing among advisors in the commodity risk management industry.
Trading futures and options involves a significant risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is no warranty or representation that accounts following any trading program will be profitable.
“You can't change the weather, but you can profit from it”
On the date of publication, Jim Roemer did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Disclosure Policy here.
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