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Chris Chavez, Market Strategist
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Good afternoon, traders. It’s Chris Chavez with the Blue Line Futures and it’s your daily mid-day market minute. Stock indices, precious metals, cryptocurrencies are all bouncing back here today following the hotter than expected CPI print yesterday. Before we get to it, if you’re watching this video like it, subscribe if you’re on our website, there’s also a link to direct you to YouTube.
You can subscribe that way. We’d love for you to follow us. We would love for you to help us build our following. Yeah. Looking at the markets here today, there wasn’t any material economic data that’s really influencing interest rate yields. But we did get some Fed speak. Specifically. Austan Goolsbee, one of the committee members, did come out and say that and really double down on the Fed’s 2% inflation target.
But he also reiterated that the Fed is looking at that as the preferred inflation indicator that they use to determine whether or not they are getting back to their 2% goal and how there is definitely some disparity between the components inside a PKI and CPI. So really I think that the markets, you know, digested some of that talk but also digested the move yesterday and kind of realized, okay, overall inflation is still coming down.
Sure, we did see an uptick. Maybe there were some seasonal components inside of this, inside of the uptick that we saw. That is one reason why you’re seeing inflation a little bit higher than expectations. But I do think that overall we are still coming down. Inflation is is is coming down meaningfully on track to get back to that 2% target.
And maybe the markets overdid some of the sell off that we saw yesterday just a bit much, especially when looking at some asset classes, specifically small caps or some sectors rather than asset classes, small caps and cryptocurrencies, which are leading the way higher here today. The Russell 2000 outperforming along with Bitcoin as well, the Nasdaq and the S&P in slightly positive territory.
But again, there wasn’t any material economic data that’s really influencing this move here today. I think just the markets kind of taking a little bit of a step back after, you know, maybe realizing that, you know, this this uptick in CPI still looks good year over year, you know, compared to where we were at. And, you know, moving forward, the economic data is still going to be really important.
But also earnings and growth also matters and will continue to matter. Now, we did get some data today specifically for energies, a crude inventories, 12.1 million barrels in inventories versus 3.3 million expected. So, you know, at that as of release of that data, you know, we did see crude take a little bit of a leg lower. Looking at interest rate expectations, 39% chance of a cut in May versus an 80% chance in June.
So markets have really pushed back some of those cut expectations into the back half of the year starting in June. Tomorrow, we will get initial and continuing claims. Labor market data is going to be really important. Retail sales going to be great insight as far as consumers and health of the consumer is looking industrial production and New York Fed manufacturing and Philly Fed manufacturing as well.
So there is a lot to pay attention to tomorrow and a lot that will definitely influence yields. Looking at some of these markets, a three star support level to pay attention to for the S&P 49, 74 and a half to 49, 78 and a quarter. Looking at the Nasdaq at three star support level 17 554 to 17 565 crude oil, 7929 to 7965.
That’s a major overhead resistance. We did push higher looking at the crude market today. And so we got that inventories data that was released and then we kind of reversed a bit. So we’re finding some support here in the intraday session that’s going to be a major overhead level to pay attention to the silver, really finding some support here today, bouncing back along with, you know, precious metals or along with gold, rather gold slightly in positive territory.
Silver is a big outperformer here today. Amongst those two major overhead resistance for silver is going to be 20 to 40 1 to 2246, which we are actually slightly above this level. As of this video. So I want to see us break in close above there to definitely add a bit more conviction after we saw the brutal sell off yesterday in the precious metals.
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