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U.S. CPI for January is due at 7:30 am CT. Expectations are for:

  • Core CPI +0.3% m/m, unchanged from December, and +3.7% y/y, down from 3.9%.
  • Headline CPI at +0.2% m/m, down from +0.3% in December, and +2.9% y/y, down from +3.4% and the first two-handle since March 2021. 

E-mini S&P (March) / E-mini NQ (March)

S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5041.25, down 2.75

NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 17,965.00, down 74.25

CPI is front and center. Although the E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ remain in a steady uptrend, we cannot ignore yesterday’s exuberance and reversal. While indices traded higher early, the VIX began an ascent to finish +7.89% on the session. Is this a sign of things to come or another divergence to be shaken off? Ultimately, a pullback, profit-taking, or healthy consolidation, whatever you’d like to call it, is very acceptable given the S&P’s +6% year-to-date and psychological achievement of 5000. As always, upon such a pullback, we will look to a constructive response to listed supports.

Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 5040.25-5044***, 5057.50**, 5063.75-5066.50***, 5091.75***

Pivot: 5033.25

Support: 5016.25-5019.25***, 5005-5008**, 4996.25-4999.25**, 4988-4990***, 4974.75-4978.25***, 4961.25-4964.25**, 4955-4857.25**, 4941.50-4942.75**, 3937.75**, 4929-4931.75***

NQ (March)

Resistance: 17,936-17,972**, 18,007-18,040***, 18,066-18,071**, 18,109-18,122**, 18,366***

Pivot: 17,867-17,875

Support: 17,777-17,808***, 17,718**, 16,660-17,671***, 17,598**, 17,554-17,565***, 17,436-17,484****

Crude Oil (March)

Yesterday’s close: Settled at 77.42, up 0.50

March Crude Oil futures have reached the highest level since January 31st, ahead of the OPEC meeting and as geopolitics remain at the forefront. After Thursday’s rally, yesterday’s early wiggle will help define a floor out above major three-star support at 75.08-75.14, with overhead resistance aligning with the late January rounded topping.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 78.01-78.11**, 79.29-79.65****

Pivot: 77.42-77.48

Support: 76.83-76.98**, 76.50*, 75.54-75.82**, 75.08-75.14***, 74.52-74.62**, 74.16-74.22**, 73.38-73.56***, 72.57-72.76***

Gold (April) / Silver (March)

Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 2033.0, down 5.7

Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 22.767, down 0.173

Gold and Silver futures have continued to whipsaw out above support dating back to November. On a positive note, the response to support is crucial, however, negatively, a streak of lower highs continues to bring tremendous headwind. Silver has certainly started the week with added buoyancy, but a close above resistance at 23.23-23.36 and 23.45 is truly needed to invite added buying. As for Gold, we view a close above major three-star support at 2051.7-2054.3 as extremely constructive. To the downside, new closing lows are likely to feed on themselves.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 2040.2-2041.8**, 2045.5**, 2051.7-2054.3***, 2059.1-2061.3***, 2067.4-2071.42***

Pivot: 2035

Support: 2030.8-2031.8***, 2023.3-2026***, 2012.5-2016.7***, 2007.4**

Silver (March)

Resistance: 23.02**, 23.09-23.15**, 23.23-23.36***, 23.45***

Pivot: 22.85-22.90

Support: 22.75-22.79**, 22.57-22.63**, 22.42-22.49**, 22.30-22.33**, 22.19-22.22**, 22.04-22.05***, 21.75***, 21.26-21.33***

Bill Baruch, President & Founder, Blue Line Futures

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On the date of publication, Bill Baruch did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Disclosure Policy here.

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