Front month soybean futures are dropping through Friday, though July remains +$12. Futures are avoiding setting new lows for the move, but with 5 ¾ to 8 cent losses across the front months through midday, futures are back to net lower for the week’s move. Midday Soymeal prices are UNCH to $1.50 weaker. Soy oil prices are also fading with midday losses of 57 to 73 points so far.
Canadian canola stocks were confirmed at 12.85 MMT as of December 31 via the StatsCan data release. That was below the average of pre-report estimates, but within the range and was 1.3% above Dec ’22.
USDA’s updated WASDE data had 35 mbu fewer soybean exports, which built carryout by the same amount. The only other S&D adjustment was a 1 mbu larger seed use, which came out of residual use. The trade was on average looking for hike to ending stocks, but at 315 mbu we’re looking at the largest number since 2019/20.
The global updates reduced world soybean output by 770k MT to 398.2 MMT. USDA cut Brazil by 1 MMT to 156, though CONAB cut Brazil’s soybean production 5.9 MMT to 149.4 MMT - via a yield cut of 1.7 bpa to 51. It’s worth noting that USDA found another 2 MMT of old crop Brazilian bean production, raising this year’s beginning stocks. World bean trade was 370k MT lower to 170.6 MMT, with stocks 1.43 MMT looser at 116 MMT. The trade was expecting to see a 113 MMT carryout but did not anticipate the old crop Brazilian revision.
Mar 24 Soybeans are at $11.86 3/4, down 6 3/4 cents,
Nearby Cash is at $11.34 5/8, down 6 5/8 cents,
May 24 Soybeans are at $11.93 1/4, down 6 1/2 cents,
Jul 24 Soybeans are at $12.03, down 6 1/4 cents,
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