Beans recovered from overnight weakness and are trading with midday gains of as much as 6 ¼ cents so far. Midday Soymeal futures are up by as much as $3.50 so far, led by the March contract. March meal held onto a net $7.80 gain last week. Soy oil futures are working 47 to 60 points higher through Monday’s midday.
The weekly Export Inspections report showed 1.426 MMT (52.4 mbu) of soybeans were shipped during the week that ended 2/1. That was up from 913k MT the week prior, but was a 25% decrease from the same week last year’s volume. China was the top destination. USDA reported the season’s total shipment at 29.12 MMT (1.07 bbu), which remains 24% behind last year and 17% behind the 5-yr average pace.
Analysts are expecting USDA to raise soybean carryout by 4.6 mbu to 284.6 mbu on average ahead of the Feb USDA reports. The full range of estimates is to see between 245 mbu and 310 mbu in next Thursday’s report. Pre-report estimates are to see a 3.3 MMT cut to Brazilian output partially offset by an 800k MT larger Argentinian crop.
StatsCan data will also show Canadian soybean and canola stocks on Feb 8th as of December 31. Traders are looking for canola to come in between 12.5 MMT and 13.9 MMT with 13 MMT expected on average. That would be looser than the 12.7 MMT inventory from Dec ’22.
Mar 24 Soybeans are at $11.95, up 6 1/2 cents,
Nearby Cash is at $11.42, up 6 1/2 cents,
May 24 Soybeans are at $12.03, up 4 3/4 cents,
Jul 24 Soybeans are at $12.12 1/2, up 4 1/4 cents,
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