Wheat prices are still down by 5 to 9 cents, and near their lows, early on Monday. Futures sold off immediately at the overnight open and spent the rest of the night/morning session near the lows. Chicago futures ended fractionally mixed in the deferred contracts and 1 ¾ cents lower in March on Friday. March SRW was down a net ½ cents for the week. KC wheat futures settled the day 2 ¼ to 4 ¼ cents higher with March a net ¼ cent below last Friday’s settle. MPLS futures went into the weekend fractionally mixed out past March’s 3 ¾ cent gain. March HRS futures were still 3 ¾ cents weaker for the week’s move.
Commitment of Traders data showed CBT wheat specs were adding a few more shorts than new longs during the week that ended 1/30. On net the group’s 4k new positions extended their net short by 277 to 64,818 contracts. Managed money traders were 5k contracts less net short in KC wheat for the week, now at a 33.4k contract net short. CFTC reported the funds held a 27k contract net short in Minneapolis wheat as of 1/30, that was 3.2k contracts weaker for the week also as a result of short covering.
Survey respondents expect USDA to tighten the wheat carryout in the Feb WASDE to 647.4 mbu on average. The full range of estimates is from -23 to +25 mbu from the Jan figure. The trade average guess for global wheat carryout is 260.5 MMT, or 500k looser.
Also on Feb 8th, StatsCan will report Grain Stocks for December. The average trade guess is to see 20.7 MMT of wheat vs 23 MMT last year. The full range of estimates is from 3.5 MMT tighter to 1.1 MMT tighter than Dec ’22.
The US ag attaché raised projected Argentine wheat production to 15.4 MMT vs. the January WASDE number of 15 MMT.
Mar 24 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.99 3/4, down 1 3/4 cents, currently down 7 3/4 cents
May 24 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.08, down 1 1/2 cents, currently down 7 3/4 cents
Mar 24 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.25, up 4 1/4 cents, currently down 8 1/2 cents
Mar 24 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.99 3/4, up 3 3/4 cents, currently down 6 1/2 cents
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