The front month bean futures market ended the day 14 ½ to 15 ½ cents lower. That left March futures at a net 20 ¾ cent loss for the week’s move. New crop Nov remains a 17 ½ cent discount to the March contract. Soymeal futures settled the day $4 to $4.90 weaker. March meal held onto a net $7.80 for the week. Soy oil futures concluded Friday 83 to 87 points lower, and a net 220 points lower for the week. re 83 to 90 points lower at midday.
The CoT report showed managed money funds were 108k contracts net short in soybeans as of 1/30. That was a 16.4k contract stronger net short for the week given net new selling. The commercial hedgers added 21.8k new longs, which flipped the group to a 21.3k contract net long. Spec traders closed longs in soymeal during the week, which extended their net short by 3k to 22k contracts. The funds were 9.7k contracts more net short in BO after a week of net new selling.
Analysts are expecting USDA to raise soybean carryout by 4.6 mbu to 284.6 mbu on average ahead of the Feb USDA reports. The full range of estimates is to see between 245 mbu and 310 mbu in next Thursday’s report. Pre-report estimates are to see a 3.3 MMT cut to Brazilian output partially offset by an 800k MT larger Argentinian crop.
StatsCan data will also show Canadian soybean and canola stocks on Feb 8th as of December. Traders are looking for canola to come in between 12.5 MMT and 13.9 MMT with 13 MMT expected on average. That would be looser than the 12.7 MMT inventory from Dec ’22.
The monthly Fats and Oils report showed 204.3 mbu of soybeans were crushed in December. That was a new all-time high but was slightly below the trade average guess. NASS data has the season total at 780.5 mbu through Dec, which is also a record pace and compares to 741.2 mbu last year. Soybean oil stocks were reported at 1.36 billion lbs, up from from 1.214b in November.
Mar 24 Soybeans closed at $11.88 1/2, down 14 3/4 cents,
Nearby Cash was $11.36 5/8, down 15 cents,
May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.98 1/4, down 15 1/2 cents,
Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $12.08 1/4, down 15 1/2 cents,
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Disclosure Policy here.
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