March beans are again battling at the $12 mark with double digit weakness through Thursday following the poor export sales data. Soymeal futures are also $620 to $7.80 weaker through midday. Soy oil futures are trading 39 to 51 points lower so far.
Weekly Export Sales data had a new MY low for bean bookings with just 164.5k MT sold during the week that ended 1/25. Estimates were to see at least 500k MT and as much as 1.05 MMT. The weekly update put soymeal sales at 494k MT for the week and soybean oil bookings at 1k MT.
EIA released official biodiesel and renewable diesel production and capacity numbers for November on Wednesday. Renewable diesel was up 6% from a year ago at 224 million gallons, but still well down from the record set in September (251 million gallons). Bean oil use as the feedstock improved to 36.2% but is still down due to competition (see below).
USDA will release the monthly Fats & Oils report after the close. Trade estimates for December soybean crush average 206 million bushels, with a couple estimates at 207. Soy oil stocks are on average expected to build to 1.764 billion pounds due to the higher crush rate and a recent tendency for biofuels refiners to utilize imported used cooking oil instead of bean oil.
Anec estimates the Brazilian soybean exports at 2.49 MMT for the month of January. That is up from 940k MT during Jan ’23. Meal shipments were projected at 1.76 MMT vs 1.43 MMT last year.
Mar 24 Soybeans are at $12.00 3/4, down 21 1/2 cents,
Nearby Cash is at $11.48 1/2, down 15 5/8 cents,
May 24 Soybeans are at $12.12, down 20 3/4 cents,
Jul 24 Soybeans are at $12.22 1/2, down 19 1/4 cents,
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