Pre-Report Positioning ahead of NASS Cattle Inventory Data

CME data confirmed live cattle OI has steadily increased this week into the Cattle Inventory report, up 8.5k contracts (3.2%) since last week. On Tuesday, feeder cattle led the way and closed with triple digit gains on Tuesday of as much as 1.1%. futures settled the session $1.82 to $2.70 in the black. Live cattle futures were also in the black for the close, though gains were limited to 0.4% across the front months. USDA’s cash trade for the week remains unestablished through Tuesday, as last week mostly saw sales near $175. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for 1/29 was $2.13 stronger at $236.28. 

Today’s semi-annual Cattle Inventory report from NASS is expected to show an 87.6 million head herd as of Jan 1. That would be the smallest national total cattle herd since 1957 if realized. Beef cow numbers as of Jan 1 are expected to be down by 2.6% from last year, with beef heifer replacements also reduced because of high feedlot placements during the year. 

USDA’s afternoon boxed beef prices weakened with a $3.35 pullback in Choice and a $1.77 drop for Select. USDA reported FI cattle slaughter for Tuesday at 127k head, leaving the week’s total at 252,000. That remains 12k ahead of last week’s pace and 6k head more than the same week last year.  

Feb 24 Cattle  closed at $178.025, up $0.650,

Apr 24 Cattle  closed at $181.750, up $0.525,

Jun 24 Cattle  closed at $179.225, up $0.750,

Mar 24 Feeder Cattle  closed at $241.325, up $2.700

Apr 24 Feeder Cattle  closed at $247.000, up $2.400

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