US natural gas prices (NGG24), (NGH24), (KOLD), (UNG) sold off Monday after big warmer trends the past 30-hours and where both the mainstay GFS and ECMWF weather models shed a hefty 30+ Heating Degree Days (HDDs) for the coming 15-days.  The weekend weather data had trended colder with a weather system into the eastern US this coming weekend but reversed course overnight and midday by seeing much less subfreezing air into the northern US.  And it didn't help the pattern for Feb 8-13 also lost demand as warmer than normal upper high pressure sets up over the eastern ½ of the US, while forecast in recent data to be stronger and last longer, thereby preventing cooler weather systems into the western and central US from advancing into the important eastern US. 

Both the GFS and ECMWF weather models showed big warmer trends over the past 30-hours for the coming 15-days.  The image is from our Live updating weather model statistics and shows what period experienced the biggest warmer trends, totaling to a hefty loss of more than 30 HDDs for the coming 15-days.

The reason for such light national demand the next 15-days is the lack of subfreezing high temperatures over most the US most days (image below).  With highs of 50s to 80s over much of the southern US, and with highs of 30s to 50s over the northern US, late January and early February is proving to be one of the warmest of the past 50-years, just like much of the month of December.

The US weather pattern the next several days will be much warmer vs normal and with very little coverage of subfreezing highs.  And with temperatures across the southern US in the upper 50s to lower 80s, national demand will be exceptionally lighter than normal.  

The weather pattern the next several days will be dominated by a much warmer than normal ridge of high pressure, leading to very little coverage of subfreezing highs (image above and below).   The southern US will be very comfortable with highs of upper 50s to lower 80s, including comfortable highs of 60s up the central Plains.  The only relatively cold area of the country the next 5-days will be New England w/highs near 30F (image below).  

Mid-week highs will be above freezing for nearly the entire US.  This is a rare feat of late January and early February and why national HDDs/demand are much below normal.  

Next week's weather pattern continues with a much warmer than normal ridge dominating much of the interior US (image below), resulting in warmer than normal temperatures and continued lighter than normal national demand.  There will be weather systems into the western and southern US with rain and snow, but rather mild and with little subfreezing air.   A cooler system will impact the New England. 

Next week's weather pattern favors weather systems into the West, then tracking across the southern US with showers.  However, these systems are rather mild and with little subfreezing air.   In addition, a warmer than normal upper ridge of high pressure will cover much of the interior US with warmer vs normal temperatures. 

Much of the weather data favors cooler vs normal temperatures gradually spreading across the US Feb 15-23 for stronger national demand (image below).  However, the risk is the Feb 14-16 period trends warmer in time, just as the Feb 10-13 period did, with the reason again being a warm ridge over the eastern 1/2 of the US holding stronger and longer.  There's also risks that when colder temperatures finally arrive after Feb 14-15, there arrive not as impressively cold. 

Many of the weather models favor a cooler than normal pattern setting up for the 2nd half of February.  Although, the risk is the colder pattern gets delayed a little longer and then arrives not quite as cold as some of the data suggests. 

In summary, natural gas prices opened the week with fresh selling, aided by big warmer trends for the first 13-days of February for much lighter than normal HDDs and national demand.  A cooler pattern is forecast in most of the weather models for Feb 15-25, although the risk is a warm eastern US ridge holds stronger and longer and a cooler pattern gets delayed again and then arrives with less subfreezing air.  

For the latest weather forecasts and weather statistics specific to the natural gas markets and energy industry, visit us at www.natgasweather.com. 


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