Soybeans are trading off their lows, which overnight had the March contract sub $12, but futures are still 3 to 5 cents in the red as the sun comes up in the US on Monday. Soybean futures were down by another 10 to 14 cents across the front months on Friday, which left the weekly chart with the 11th red candle (-$1.50) over the past 12 weeks. Preliminary open interest was up 8,901 contracts, confirming net new selling interest. Soymeal futures closed with more than 2% losses on Friday, leaving the front months at a weekly drop of $6. Soy oil futures closed firmer with 32 to 40 point gains for the front months.
The CFTC’s weekly Commitment of Traders report had managed money traders with a 91,842 contract net short as of 1/23. That was a 15k contract stronger net short with new sellers and fewer longs. Commercial soybean hedgers had added 29.7k new positions during the week, but the new longs offset the new shorts for a 9.4k contract weaker net short of 1,556 contracts. Managed money traders were also adding new meal shorts and closing meal longs during the week, on net growing their net short to 19k contracts. Spec traders were shown adding soybean oil longs for the week, which reduced their net short by 2.3k contracts to 44.7k.
The BA Grain Exchange estimates 98% of the Argentine soybean crop is planted. Condition was rated 44% good/ex, a sharp drop from the previous week. That group rates 8% of the crop in poor condition vs. only 2% the previous week. Their production estimate of 52.5 MMT is still larger than the most recent USDA figure of 50 MMT. On the export front, China confirmed that their sow herd shrank 5.7% from Dec 31 to Dec 31, and the overall hog inventory was down 4%. This is weighing on planned soy imports for February.
Mar 24 Soybeans closed at $12.09 1/4, down 13 3/4 cents, currently down 5 cents
Nearby Cash was $11.55 7/8, down 12 7/8 cents,
May 24 Soybeans closed at $12.16 1/4, down 14 cents, currently down 4 1/4 cents
Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $12.24, down 13 1/2 cents, currently down 3 1/2 cents
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