March futures are sitting 2 ¼ cents below last Friday’s close, which would be the 6th consecutive, and 11/12th red week – a net $1.52 ¼ loss – as beans are down by 8 to 9 ½ cents in early Friday futures activity. After seeing the weak ethanol output caused by cold weather and assuming a similar slump for soy crushers, the bean market dropped double digits to finish 10 ¾ to 17 ¼ cents in the red on Thursday. Soymeal futures also dropped by $4.10 to $5.10 on Thursday. Front month Soy oil futures closed 70 to 79 points weaker on the day.
The Canadian canola crush was 943k MT for December according to the StatsCan data. That was up 14.1%, bringing the season total to 4.578 MMT. Canadian Canola Prices were down by over 1.5% across the front months on the day. That left contracts back near their contract lows.
The weekly FAS Export Sales data showed 560,869 MT of soybeans were booked during the week that ended 1/18. That was below expectations and was 57% of last year’s volume. Bean commitments were at 37.9 MMT as of 1/18 compared to 45.3 MMT last year.
USDA’s weekly Export Sales data also had 255.8 MT of soymeal sales, which was inline with estimates. Soybean oil sales were reported at 118 MT compared to the -5k to +10k MT expected. The BA Grain Exchange estimates 98% of the Argentine soybean crop is planted. Condition was rated 44% good/ex, a sharp drop from the previous week. That group rates 8% of the crop in poor condition vs. only 2% the previous week. Their production estimate of 52.5 MMT is still larger than the most recent USDA figure of 50 MMT.
Mar 24 Soybeans closed at $12.23, down 17 1/4 cents, currently down 8 3/4 cents
Nearby Cash was $11.68 3/4, down 17 cents,
May 24 Soybeans closed at $12.30 1/4, down 16 1/4 cents, currently down 9 cents
Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $12.37 1/2, down 15 1/4 cents, currently down 8 1/2 cents
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Disclosure Policy here.
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