Live Cattle (December)
December live cattle got shot out of a cannon yesterday, breakout out above the previous day’s high which extended the rally into our 3-star resistance pocket from 187.67-188.00. This pocket will be an important one to keep an eye on into the end of the week. With a full retracement of the August breakdown point complete and the RSI in overbought territory for the first time since January, we’d be looking at downside exposure in the short term. October live cattle go into delivery next week, perhaps that played a role in the swing higher. Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment data will be out tomorrow morning, that could have an impact on outside markets and spill into money flow in commodities.
Weekly Export Sales
Beef: Net sales of 22,500 MT for 2024 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 68 percent from the prior 4-week average.
- Resistance: 187.675-188.00***
- Pivot: 184.225-184.55
- Support: 181.325-182.07, 179.10-179.97
Seasonal Tendency Update
Live cattle futures were able to buck the seasonal trend of weaker prices in the back half of September, will that strength continue into a seasonally strong time of year? TBD. Economic data and an election could add some turbulence to the market in the coming months.
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results
Lean Hogs (December)
December lean hog futures continued to surge higher yesterday with prices breakout out and closing above our resistance pocket from 75.25-76.00, this will now act as support on a closing basis. The RSI as breached 70 which means we are officially in overbought territory for the first time since April.
Weekly Export Sales
Pork: Net sales of 43,400 MT for 2024 were up 55 percent from the previous week and 61 percent from the prior 4-week average.
- Resistance: 77.72, 78.70-78.97*
- Pivot: 75.25-76.00
- Support: 73.85-74.07, 72.00-72.85*
Seasonal Tendency Update
Below is a look at price averages for December lean hogs over 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames.
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative off
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