Phillip Streible, Chief Market Strategist
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Good morning. It’s Friday, January 19, about 6 a.m. Central Time. Overnight, the precious metals are higher after yesterday’s kind of late day rally. It was really interesting. They were under some pressure early on. We saw some key levels of support being tested, things like 20 to 50 and the March silver contract being tested and then all of a sudden things start going higher.
So it looks like Atlanta Fed President Bostic had really kind of changed his tune as the day progressed on some things, and they really nitpicked some of his comments and things and really didn’t see that as very hawkish. And that’s what really helped things out and kind of got its legs underneath some of these markets. Despite the dollar index going up, despite short term Treasury yields going up.
So in my opinion, that was a great day. And if we could finish here, be great end of the week. So we got February gold up $13. You’re going to want to look to roll that over to April. I would suggest if you’re at a break, even if you’re up on it, if you’re slightly down, take a look.
Remember, you got your own plan in place, but consider rolling or tightening up and trying to lag out of the trade because of the fact that you’re going to have to roll next week anyways. So February, April Gold 2053. So I think that might be a little bit high. We got to look at the charts here and then you go to March Silver 2294, up $0.13.
Didn’t get through 23 on the overnight but I like to see that movement up through that 23 in its early session. I’ve got March Copper got down to about 372 371 and here we’re snapping back 377 up three and you’ve got that April platinum up seven at 919 that had finally reversed has a two day rally going on right now Really dip pretty hard 886 somewhere in that range was that bottom Look at that daily chart.
Do yourself a favor. Kind of interesting here the way it looks. So we got a tech rally underway right now. The Nasdaq is up 132 points, 17000 to $41. Move the S&P move it up. And we’re close to a record high on this Nasdaq, if we didn’t take out close at a record high yesterday. So look in to extend these gains.
It was Apple shares that were helped with an upgrade from Bank of America and a lot of optimism about around artificial intelligence. They got a better iPhone sales cycle coming up. And then they also have this launch of this new Vision pro virtual reality headset, things like 3500 bucks. So you to have some cash in the bank in order to buy that.
Now here’s where things also get interesting China sell off you go to that and you look at the largest brokerage in China had suspended short selling for some of its clients because of the sell off they’re having in. I mean, that’s total manipulation. But whatever will take it because if it causes their market to start to go up and stops the bleeding, then chances are some of these key commodities, the largest consumer of gold, all the silver from Mexico, goes to China, which gets turned into products and gets distributed all over the world.
So that’s going to help out. Silver Copper futures should turn because of the large consumer of copper, and we’ll take whatever we can get and platinum right at the moment. Now you look at like year to date, gold down 1.8%, copper down 2.97, silver down 4.7%. Platinum and palladium are the worst commodities out there out of the whole basket, worse than anything out there.
The best performer, sugar and the worst one is palladium. We were joking around last week that at one point we thought that palladium prices would dip below platinum prices and I call over to my friends at Kitco said, Hey, throw that on your radar. That could be a pretty decent story. So you look at some other things out there is CME Fed Watch Tool March meeting 53.8% chance that they cut rates.
It’s about a 5050 yesterday 44.8 is that they leave rates unchanged. So we definitely kind of bumped up a little bit from the previous day but we’re well off last week where we thought that, you know, it was almost a set in stone that they were going to cut those rates. But now again, 5050. So looking at a couple of things here, we do have some things coming out and but I think a lot of the bad stuff is behind us, the hawkish data and the hawkish Fed speaker.
So you look today we’ve got saw University of Michigan consumer sentiment expecting 70.1 and they estimate that the reports measure of long term inflation expectations remains unchanged at 2.9%. It’s going to reflect lower gasoline prices and favorable inflation data. I think that’s also could draft and get some commodity is move it a little bit higher later in the day we’re going to have fed vice chair a supervision pass is going to speak but not really on anything.
It’s on banking regulations. They want to do some things, make them tap the discount window, stuff like that. 315 At the end of the day, San Francisco’s Fed president, Mary Daly will she’s going to speak. She’s a dove. I wish she was speaking at like ten in the morning. But San Francisco, what can you do? So the she wants to give people price stability, but she doesn’t want to jeopardize jobs.
So she’s she truly is a dub and it reflects San Francisco’s ideals on, you know, the way they handle their their little economy. Right or wrong, don’t want to get into politics. But you could tell that they they don’t want to have higher rates and things like that. Something else that I was going to do over the weekend was look at how, you know, Trump’s gaining steam and look at the commodities from 2016 when he got elected after that first year.
What kind of ramifications were there? We know that he’s against higher borrowing costs. We know that he’s very upset with, like Jerome Powell, he’d probably be replaced. So he’s got to keep his job. So he’s probably going to try and cut rates to keep the economy going. But again, we’re we’re spiraling out here in this political thing. But we’re going to look at like, you know, if he comes back and he does sanctions on China, how does it impact agricultural crops?
How did the dollar trade things like that? He liked the strong dollar. So we’re going to kind of put together like a presidential elections playbook and we’re kind of starting it now as he gains steam, these things should start to become priced in. So, you know, that’s where we’re at with everything. So you guys got any questions? Give me a call.
Shoot me a text. Love to hear from you. 312858733. Remember, futures options trading involves risk galore, spin up suitable for all musters. Good luck, good trading.
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