WTI Crude Oil (October)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 67.31, up 1.56
Crude rallied yesterday as the global trade shifted risk-on after the U.S. CPI number. Overnight, WTI is up another +0.83 [+1.26%]. Yesterday’s EIA report showed commercial stockpiles still hovering around five-year lows, and refinery utilization came in (again) stronger than expected. EIA data has now shown four straight months of crude inventory declines, and projections for September are for another draw of 1.4mln barrels. EIA crude oil stockpiles chart shown above.
This morning, the IEA (International Energy Agency) released its own monthly report. The report showed that global stockpiles also declined in July, and the agency projected that they would show draws in August as well. For further data and color on the IEA report, please contact our research desk.
It’s important to remember that the bear case in crude has been a forward looking thesis, with the 2025 demand picture looks anemic working in conjunction with increased supply from OPEC – this has created the weak fundamental outlook. The current supply & demand picture in crude is much tighter and cash markets have been much more resilient than futures during this latest sell-off.
This morning, PPI came in a bit hotter than expected and weekly jobless claims were largely in line with expectations. The initial reaction has been that of risk-on.
If WTI can finish the week strong, tradeable support levels may start to look stronger around these levels.
Price action has regained key resistance at…
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