Silver has seen some big price moves as it rolled from May to July onto September and now in December expiration. The current December expiration will roll to March on Nov 26. Meanwhile, in terms of prices we made a peak in late May of 33.135 pulling back in mid-June to 29.245 and then making a perfect measured move higher into and through the Fib 78.6 at 32.325 only to pull back ahead of the Sept to Dec contract roll at 26.950. Peak to valley, we have shed 6.235 points or nearly 18.8%. Ironically, we closed this past Friday as the low we made in mid-June, so this area appears to be exhibiting some value.
This past week analysts were concerned about muted Asian demand for the metal as China revised its import quotas earmarked for industrial purposes. We head into the first week of September which has several economic calendar events like ISM Manufacturing followed by JOLTS job opening ADP NFP and BLS's NFP on Friday. This week could generate sufficient volatility to commodities, metals and equities.
Download chart using this link: https://tradeguidance.com/newsletters/silver-hourly-chart-09-01-2024/
Silver’s near-term outlook looks moderately bullish, but technically, opposing measured moves downside given the open interest offsets the potential weaker physical demand. A breakthrough above $30 has immediate and intermediate price targets of 31.385 and above there could targe previous contract expiration high of 32.60. If we fail to take out that price zone in within the December expiration timeframe which is the last week in November, expect 26.690 to offer some form of support heading into the March'25 expiration.
For gold, please download the chart on here: https://tradeguidance.com/newsletters/gold-futures-chart-sept-1-24/
Gold futures despite the measured pullback on Friday, and heading into this upcoming data laden week, we could expect to test the upper 2500s if we could hold further liquidation and 2507.7 price region.
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On the date of publication, Murali Sarma did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Disclosure Policy here.
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