The cattle market is a wreck. Even Stevie Wonder can see that. We have been discussing the difficulties of the cattle market in 2025, especially with the significant top seen in 2024, that all feeder cattle contracts could never eclipse this year. The September 15 high made in 2023 was significant, and on these recovery rallies, we have been consistently labeling these as recovery rallies and that a break lower would soon develop. In this video, we show you the wave counts that we see and why we were adamant in March that hedge protection needed to be taken seriously for feeder cattle.
We were also focusing on the live cattle trade for the third and fourth quarters and the new year, which were at risk. It’s not about the tight cattle numbers that I can continue; let’s not forget that it is not only supply; it is demand. Demand is now faltering as hamburger prices were the last big lift to help the kill market in July, and now even consumer demand is faltering for hamburger meat, and that’s what this is about. Consumers are tired, and red meat is at risk, with supermarkets now having difficulty moving off expensive ground meat.
In this video, we walked through the wave counts, whether they are tied to the weekly charts or the daily charts; we broke down how we view the market along with the expectations of what declines could still be seen in price. It sounds ill-logical for those who work so hard with the cattle and have not protected themselves even to grasp the concept of how these price declines can occur. The cattle producers of 2015 should be well reminded of how fast something wonderful can give way. This time, it’s different because we saw heifer retention in 2015, which we are not necessarily seeing right now. Dealing with this price move that was more substantial in 2014, and we have been able to bridge the gap with heavier weights on fewer cattle. But now demand is the story and why fears are developing at the CME.
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On the date of publication, Eugene Graner did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Disclosure Policy here.
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