Cattle
October
(LEV24)
The chart below is key to this analysis.
There are two methods we use at ONE44 to find support and resistance in the markets.
The first are major Gann squares, these are the yellow horizontal lines on the chart. On the chart you can see how often the market has found support and resistance at these levels.
The second is Fibonacci retracements and this is what most of this post will be about.
There are a few basic rules when using the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines.
This is the short version.
A 38.2% level keeps the trend intact and new highs/lows should follow.
A 23.6% level shows the market is extremely strong, or weak.
A 61.8% level can cause wide swings and keep the market in a trading range.
A 78.6% level can send it 78.6% of where it just came from and even be the end or start of a Bull market.
We have done 40 videos on how to use the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines.
These are the two most important.
Where it has been,
The low on 4/12/24 had one close below 78.6% of the 12/7/23 low and 3/21/23 low at 172.50, ( we always want to see two to violate the level), if we follow the ONE44 78.6% rule the target is 78.6% the other way and this was 184.00, this was achieved on 5/22/24.
In between this move it hit 61.8% of the 3/21/24 high and 4/12/24 low at 180.92, this was also a major Gann square. The target when using the ONE44 61.8% rule is to look for 61.8% the other way at 174.92, this was also a major Gann square and it hit there on 5/1/24.
We already know the rally from there hit 78.6% at 184.00 and the setback from there was only able to get 38.2% back to the 4/15/24 low at 179.70. One this told us there is a trend and two it should go for new highs. The rally from there hit the 187.62 major Gann square and the setback from it held 38.2% of the new high at 181.80 on 7/9/24 keeping the trend intact, it made a slightly higher high at another 78.6% level at 189.00, this was from the 9/15/23 high and 12/7/23 low.
The long term target is 78.6% the other way at 172.90.
The break from there has hit 61.8% at 176.50, a rally from here can send it 61.8% the other way at 184.25, however it could only get one close above 38.2% (always 2 to violate it) back to the high at 181.25 and Friday it retested 61.8% at 176.50.
What to watch for,
The short term view right now is to use 181.25 (38.2%) as the swing point for the week.
Above it, look for 184.25 (61.8%).
Below it, look for it to complete the 78.6% (189.00) to 78.6% target at 173.00.
We hope with this guidance and the chart below you can see how important these two methods are to help with your analysis.
ONE44 Analytics where the analysis is concise and to the point
Our goal is to not only give you actionable information, but to help you understand why we think this is happening based on pure price analysis with Fibonacci retracements, that we believe are the underlying structure of all markets and Gann squares.
If you like this type of analysis and trade the Grain/Livestock futures you can become a Premium Member.
You can also follow us on YouTube for more examples of how to use the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines.
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