Early Morning Strength in Grain Markets Fizzled Into the Afternoon Trade

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Transcript: Points off the low there we're up 21 points on the day. So the low is yesterday's close. Let's bring him back in. That's Mr. Oliver, Sloup, Blue Line futures in Chicago. Thanks for coming on the show. Oliver, anything jump out of you there? Man, well, not, not a whole lot. Unfortunately, yesterday was, was a great day. You know, uniformly higher in the grain complex, corn, soybeans and wheat, all higher at the close, which is, seemed like the first time in a lifetime that we've seen that happen, and it looked promising in the overnight and early morning trade. We got some follow through in those three markets, but corn and wheat really kind of giving it up here into the afternoon trade, which is not really what we wanted to see. Corn seems like it's almost found somewhat of an equilibrium. It just can't really get anything going to the upside. And the selling velocity has slowed some, and we're right around $4 so that kind of makes sense there. What we're really keeping a close eye on, though, is this wheat market. We did have the overnight strength in the wheat market, and I think some of that was on the news that there were some Russian attacks on a port in Ukraine in Odessa. So I think that sparked a little bit of momentum overnight, and then it came out that there was no damage there, and we've reversed those gains and trading into negative territory. But it certainly sounds like things are definitely heating back up there again. And it certainly seems like there's some some crop concerns for wheat and other parts of the world as well, which, you know, maybe offers a little bit support to this market a little bit further down the road, but the lack of follow through is really quite discouraging. If you're looking for a silver lining in the grain markets, it's going to come from the demand side and soybeans. That's been a dark cloud for many, many months now, but we had good new crop export sales this morning, 1.3 4 million metric tons, just shy of about 50 million bushels, and that was above the top end of estimates for the second straight week. So I know we've been talking about demand not being there for soybeans, but there are some silver linings here in the last couple weeks. Well, you know, I mean, it's like one of those things, it's on. I'm even on a double edged sword. But you know, when we see your markets come off as much as they have, you better find some sales, right? Well, that's the that's the job of the market is to find that demand. And so, you know, low prices cure low prices. Not to say we can't go lower, but it's certainly starting to spur up a little bit more business, which is good to see, especially with the biggest buyer coming from China last week. Yeah, that's, that's some good news, and they're a little bit behind behind schedule, too. And we said it was either going to be weather or demand, and we kind of really didn't get both this year, did we? It was almost a perfect storm for the bears and the funds have obviously been playing that hand very well to the short side. What's going to be the catalyst to get them to cover those shorts is the conversation everybody's wondering. And right now it just doesn't seem like there is that catalyst. We've mentioned some silver linings in the demand side, but we need to see that become a more consistent trend and a bigger trend to really, you know, spur a little bit more proactive risk management from the funds. And right now, they just, they just seem pretty thick with what they got. Yeah, stay right there. We're gonna go away. We're gonna pay some bills. We're gonna come back and talk more livestock. Oliver slope, he's with blue line features in Chicago. We're in Nashville. We'll be right back. Only about 32 cents off the high of the day. Febs up. A buck will go right there. That's the biggest gainer. 7165 his last just a nickel off the highs there. All right, Oliver, let's see what you got for us when it comes to livestock again. Not a ton going on there, either. No, we well, we've had a nice recovery rally here through the first half of the week, and then just kind of fizzling out here today, which isn't all that unexpected, looking at the October live cattle contract, we, you know, nearly kissed the 50% retracement of the recent range from the the breakdown the highs to low. Is that coming in at 182 75 I think we're about 15 cents away from there, and then you saw seller step in, and I'm concerned that there's still going to be pressure in live cattle and feeder cattle here throughout the rest of the month, and maybe when we turn the calendar over, there's still a lot of headwinds looming over the market. I agree. You know, it doesn't look good, too, with the equities doing what they're doing, we can't get a rally out of out of the cattle market either. So appreciate Can you come on? Have a great rest of your day. Oliver Sloup, coming to us from Blue Line futures in Chicago. Bring it back here to Nashville. Hand it back over to Hi. I'm Oliver Sloup, Vice President and co founder of blue line futures. Join me on my journey for this year's Pro Farmer crop tour, August, 19 to the 22nd I'll be on the eastern leg, which starts in Ohio, goes through Indiana, Illinois, into Iowa, and then up to Minnesota. I'll be sending out my normal daily grain market commentary as well as special updates from my findings on my route throughout each day. Sign up for these updates by filling out the form on this page, and we'll send you one of the best looking koozies around. Sound, and I love corn, cousy, because who doesn't love corn? Thank you, and I look forward to you.

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