Soybeans Attempt to Rally Overnight. Will it Hold?

Corn

Technicals (December)

Corn futures gave back some ground in yesterday's session after failing to get out above trendline resistance. That resistance pocket is quickly converging with trendline support below the market, creating what many technicians refer to as a falling wedge pattern. This technical pattern is looked at by most technicians as Bullish as it illustrates the slowing of downward price momentum. The Bulls will want to see a break and close above resistance to confirm. A break and close below support would neutralize the chart setup.

Short Term Bias and Technical Levels of Importance
Bias: Neutral/Bullish (cautiously optimistic)
Resistance: 406 1/4-409, 421 3/4-423 3/4*
Pivot: 400-403
Support: 390 1/4, 380-385

Below: Daily Chart of December Corn Futures, depicting trendline resistance from the June highs as well as trendline support, both of which are converging to create a falling wedge. The chart also includes the 20-day moving average (in purple).

Notes

• Flash Sale Reported: On Tuesday morning, private exporters reported a flash sale of 137,160 metric tons (5,399,749 bushels) of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2024/2025 marketing year
• CONAB: Brazil's equivalent of the USDA released their August corn production estimates on Tuesday morning, coming in at 115.65 MMT, down from 115.86 MMT in July.
• Ethanol: The EIA will release their weekly ethanol report this morning, analysts are expecting to see production tick up to 1.08 million barrels per day. The average estimate for stockpiles comes in at 23.846 million.
• Ukraine Production: Ukraine's 2024 corn harvest may fall to 20 to 21 million metric tons from around 30 million tons in 2023 if drought continues. Most of Ukraine experienced an abnormal heatwave in July, which producers expect will decrease the yield of late crops by around 30%. -Reuters

Seasonal Tendencies
Below is an updated look at price averages for December corn over 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 years. *Past performance isn't necessarily indicative of future results.

Soybeans

Technicals (November)

November soybean futures continued their descent in yesterday's trade, making new lows with ease. There was initial follow-through weakness overnight, but that has reversed some with prices trading about 4-5 cents higher around 5:30am CT. The last six sessions piled on top of what was a multitooth downtrend has turned the chart into a technical graveyard, leaving the Bulls with a lot of work to do to turn the tides. The RSI reached 24 and change yesterday, which is technically considered oversold, but we've seen that as low as 22 on a few different occasions this summer. On the resistance side, the first hurdle for the Bulls to get out above comes in from 975 1/2-980.

Short Term Bias and Technical Levels of Importance
Bias: Bearish/Neutral
Resistance: 995-1000, 1013-1015
Pivot: 975 1/2-980
Support: 950*

Below: Daily Chart of November Soybean Futures, depicting trendline resistance from the May highs as well as the 20-day moving average (in purple).

Notes

• Flash Sale Reported: On Tuesday morning, private exporters reported a flash sale of 132,000 metric tons (4,850,168 bushels) of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2024/2025 marketing year
• CONAB: Brazil's equivalent of the USDA released their August soybean production estimates on Tuesday morning, coming in at 147.38 MMT, up slightly from 147.34 MMT in July.

Seasonal Tendencies
Below is an updated look at price averages for November soybeans over 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 years. *Past performance isn't necessarily indicative of future results.

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