Grains Slide Lower Overnight

Corn

Technicals (December)

Corn was able to stage a nice little rally to start the week, making it the fourth consecutive Monday with a higher close. The headline yield number in yesterday’s report led to initial weakness but some of that was offset by lower harvested acres and carryout numbers that were below expectations. Today could be an important day for technical treaders as the market knocks on the door of trendline resistance and the 20-day moving average, those price points come in from 406 1/4-409. On the support side, a failure to defend 400-403 keeps the door open for more new lows.

Short Term Bias and Technical Levels of Importance

• Bias: Neutral/Bullish (cautiously optimistic)
• Resistance: 406 1/4-409, 421 3/4-423 3/4*
• Pivot: 400-403
• Support: 390 1/4, 380-385

Below: Daily Chart of December Corn Futures, depicting trendline resistance from the June highs as well as the 20-day moving average (in purple).

August 12th USDA Report Snapshot

• Production: 15.147 billion bushels
• Yield: 183.1 bushels per acre
• Harvested Acres: 82.71 million
• 23/24 Ending Stocks: 1.867 billion bushels
• 24/25 Ending Stocks: 2.073 billion bushels

Weekly Crop Progress Update
Monday afternoon’s crop progress report showed good/excellent conditions for the U.S. corn crop at 67%, unchanged from last week and 1% better than expectations. Last year at this time the crop was rated 59% good/excellent.
 

Other Notes From Monday

• Weekly Export Inspections: 974,677 Metric Tons, within the range of estimates from 900,000-1,300,000. Last week: 1,213,422.
• Flash Sale Reported: 165,000 metric tons (6,495,761 bushels) of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024/2025 marketing year.

Soybeans

Technicals (November)

Yesterday’s WASDE report confirmed what the market has been trying to price in, and that is that a big crop keeps getting bigger. The market made new lows following the release but was able to finish halfway decent. That sliver of optimism has waned overnight with the market taking out yesterday’s lows which marks the lowest levels since September of 2020. That pressure has taken the RSI down to 26, nearing the lowest levels we’ve seen all year. Last January and March we saw it as low as 20.

Short Term Bias and Technical Levels of Importance

• Bias: Bearish/Neutral
• Resistance: 1013-1015, 1025-1031 3/4
• Pivot: 995-1000
• Support: 980*

Below: Daily Chart of November Soybean Futures, depicting trendline resistance from the May highs as well as the 20-day moving average (in purple).
 

August 12th USDA Report Snapshot

• Production: 4.589 billion bushels
• Yield: 53.2 bushels per acre
• Harvested Acres: 86.271 million
• 23/24 Ending Stocks: 345 million bushels
• 24/25 Ending Stocks: 560 million bushels

Weekly Crop Progress Update

Good/excellent conditions for the U.S. soybean crop were left unchanged at 68%, that was 1% better than expectations. Last year at this time the crop was rated at 59% good/excellent.

Other Notes From Monday

• Flash Sale Reported: 300,000 metric tons (11,023,110 bushels) of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations. Of the total, 100,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2023/2024 marketing year and 200,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year.
• Weekly Export Inspections: 326,546 Metric Tons, within the range of estimates from 300,000-500,000. Last week: 261,203.

Wheat

Technicals (September)

September Chicago wheat futures have been tethered to the 20 day moving average for the last week, with significant overhead resistance coming in just above that from 555 1/2-556 1/4. Until we see consecutive closes above that pocket, the Bears will continue to have the technical advantage. On the support side, our first support pocket is being tested this morning, that comes in from 525 1/4-530. Below that the next line in the sand comes in from 514-517.

Short Term Bias and Technical Levels of Importance

• Bias: Neutral
• Resistance: 555 1/2-556 1/4, 590-592
• Pivot: 537-540
• Support: 525 1/4-530, 514-517*

Below: Daily Chart of September Wheat Futures, depicting resistance and a potential inflection point for the market from 555 1/2-556 1/4.
 

August 12th USDA Report Snapshot

• All Wheat Production: 1.982 billion bushels
• 24/25 Ending Stocks: 828 million bushels

Other Notes from Monday

• Spring wheat good/excellent ratings were reported at 72%, analysts were expecting it to be left unchanged at 74% from the previous week. Harvest is 18% complete.
• Winter wheat harvest is 93% complete, 2% ahead of the average pace.

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