Soybeans fell following the 11:00 am CDT USDA data release this morning as larger than expected yield was met with larger than expected acreage. Contracts did get some short covering later in the session to close with 15 to 18 cent losses. Soymeal futures were down $1.70 to $5.80 per ton. Soy Oil futures settled with losses of 30 to 113 points at the close.
The US soybean production total was the bear in the room for the USDA, as yield was up 1.2 bpa to 53.2 bpa, and acreage was up 1 million planted acres at 87.1 million. That boosted production to a record 4.589 bbu, up 154 mbu from last month. FSA data pegged 86.046 million soybean acres (normally light vs. NASS due to some acres not enrolled with FSA) enrolled by August 9 and 775,000 acres of prevent plant.
Carryout for the old crop was left unchanged at 345 mbu. The same was not said for new crop and the large production total that raised the carryout by 125 mbu to 560 mbu.
On the world stage, Argentina 2023/24 production was down 0.5 MMT to 49 MMT, as Brazil was left at 153 MMT. The new crop South American numbers were left alone but the world stocks total was up 6.5 MMT to 134.3 MMT, mainly due to the US.
NASS Crop Progress data from later in the day showed 91% of the US soybean crop blooming as of August 11, with 72% of the crop setting pods, both slightly above the 5-year average. Crop conditions were steady at 68% gd/ex, with 1% moving from excellent to good and dropping the Brugler500 index by 1 to 371.
USDA reported an export sale announcement of 300,000 MT of soybeans this morning to unknown destinations, with 100,000 MT old crop sold and 200,000 MT sold for new crop. Inspections data from FGIS showed 326,546 MT (12 mbu) of soybeans shipped in the week of 8/8. That was 22.4% above last week but down 21.9% from a year ago. Marketing year shipments are at 43.36 MMT (1.594 bbu), a 15.3% drop from the same period last year.
Aug 24 Soybeans closed at $10.12, down 16 cents,
Nearby Cash was $9.56 3/4, down 17 1/2 cents,
Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.86, down 16 1/2 cents,
Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.03 1/2, down 15 3/4 cents,
New Crop Cash was $9.30 1/2, down 16 1/2 cents,
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Disclosure Policy here.
Disclaimer: The copyright of this article belongs to the original author. Reposting this article is solely for the purpose of information dissemination and does not constitute any investment advice. If there is any infringement, please contact us immediately. We will make corrections or deletions as necessary. Thank you.
