Wheat futures are trading fractionally to 4 cents higher this morning after rallying at the overnight open. Chicago prices were nearly a dime off their lows at the bell, but still 6 to 7 ¾ cents lower on Friday. KC wheat futures ended the Friday session fractionally to 2 ¾ cents lower. Spring wheat futures were also fractionally to a penny lower on Friday. That left the March contracts with net 20, 12 ¾, and 12 ½ cent losses for the week’s move for SRW, HRW and HRS respectively. USDA reduced the cash average price by 10 cents to $7.20.
Commitment of Traders data had Chicago wheat specs closing shorts during the week that ended 1/9. That reduced the group’s net short to 57,988 contracts. Spec traders added 1k new positions in KC, on net reducing their net short by 270 contracts to 34.2k. CFTC data had the funds as net new sellers in MGE wheat during the week, extending their net short to 28,637 contracts.
NASS’s winter wheat acreage was reported at 34.425 million acres. That was down from 36.699m last year and below expectations. HRW was reported at 24m acres, with 25.2m expected and 25.7m last season. SRW acreage was reported at 6.86 million, compared to 7 expected on average and 7.4m last year.
NASS updated last year’s June wheat stocks, which tightened the 23/24 carryin by 12 mbu. With only 1 mbu shifting through the rest of the S&D table, carryout was on net 648 mbu – compared to the 658.7 mbu expected. NASS Grain Stocks Data showed 1.410 bbu of wheat out there on 12/1. That was 98.424 mbu looser than last year. Analysts are expecting NASS to report 1.391 bbu December 1 wheat stocks.
Global WAOB adjustments included a 1.71 MMT increase to carry-in and a 1.9 MMT increase for production from the Dec report. Global trade was also upped by 2.35 MMT. On net the wheat carryout for 23/24 was reported at 260 MMT – up by 1.83 MMT compared to no change expected going in.
Mar 24 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.96, down 7 3/4 cents, currently up 1 cent
May 24 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.10, down 6 3/4 cents, currently up ¾ cent
Mar 24 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.15 1/4, down 3/4 cent, currently up 3 ¾ cents
Mar 24 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.99 1/2, down 1/2 cent, currently up 1 ½ cents
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Disclosure Policy here.
Disclaimer: The copyright of this article belongs to the original author. Reposting this article is solely for the purpose of information dissemination and does not constitute any investment advice. If there is any infringement, please contact us immediately. We will make corrections or deletions as necessary. Thank you.
