Are Rallies in Grain and Cattle Markets Selling Opportunities?

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It’s nice to see cat and get a little wind beneath its wings. Like our next guest has it’s Mr. Oliver Sloup. He’s with blue line, Blue Line futures in Chicago, Illinois. Thanks for being on Happy Monday to you, sir. What’s top of mind?
Well, I certainly wish it was a little bit happier of a Monday see, and a lotta red on the screen, particularly in corn and soybeans, and it’s just kind of wild. What difference a few days makes in these markets nowadays. You know, last Wednesday, Thursday, it looked like we’re gonna finally chew through some technical resistance levels for corn and soybeans, and potentially stage a little bit more of a relief rally. But we ultimately failed and sold off pretty hard on Friday, which is again, spilling over into pressure to start the week, and really kind of leaves the door open for some of these psychologically significant numbers to be tested for dollars for December corn, and $10 for November beans. Now, corn still mostly range bound, though, remember, the bottom end of the recent range is 403. psychologically significant support for dollar. So I still think that can hold exports have still been pretty decent for the corn market. So I think there is value at the lower end of the range. On the other hand, soybeans not as optimistic or rosy of a picture. Here, we’ve seen some flash sales here over the last couple of weeks. But we need to see that on a more consistent basis at a much larger scale as well to kind of keep this market from really rolling over below 10 bucks.
I mean, I think the best way that I can sum it up, Oliver is that if the funds aren’t buying nobody else is.
That’s exactly it. And I’ve been talking with guys here over the last probably several months now is if we do get these rallies, it’s not going to be you know, new buying coming into the market, it’s going to be short, short covering, and they’re probably going to be short lived little blips. So I think you’re gonna want to look at those opportunities is as a means to get some protection on to the downside. There’s still some year left. Still a lot of decisions to be made. So it’ll be interesting to see how it shakes out. But again, I think that relief rallies are probably meant to be looked at as opportunities to scale in on some hedges,
how much do you think moved over the last little blip? We just had
probably not enough to be honest with you. It’ll be interesting to see you know, the the markets go off the markets go down right now the path of least resistance has been to the downside, eventually that will change but I don’t know what the catalysts would be to really shift I that dynamic at this point.
Yeah, I mean, it’s gonna be right. It’s gonna be interesting to see. You know, I don’t know it’s one of those things, you know, damned if you do damned if you don’t now a lot of the producers in a tight bind, because they you know, do they buy some puts here, spend some more money on a situation it’s going to be bad or the wait around, keep your hands in your pocket open for a rally? I mean, it’s gonna be a tough one. All right. Thanks for all that great stuff. All the rollover, slow Blue Line futures. We’re gonna go away. Stay right there. We’re gonna come back. We’re gonna pay some bills. Talk more with Oliver. Right. 6797. All right, let’s bring him in. That’s Oliver Sloup, Blue Line futures. And Chicago all or anything jump out at you there.
We had a nice, nice close to last week’s trade in the cattle markets. We had October live cattle futures really trading to their highest levels since last year, which is great. And you know, we talked about rallies and the grains being as opportunities to look for protection of the downside. I think the exact same can be said for the cattle markets, just that a little bit better prices, relatively speaking. You know, we’ve seen the convergence between August futures and the cash market, which is pretty on par with what we seasonally see. My concern going forward is once we get August futures into first notice day and delivery here in about a week, that we start to see that some of that optimism wane as we chew through the peak demand season and historically looking if you look back over the last 510 1525 30 years, August is a really tough month to see these cattle market have a really sustainable rally, and I’m not sure this year is going to be any different. So looking at opportunities to protect the downside for for hedgers and play the short side for speculators.
Yeah, to your point. I mean, it was not too long ago, maybe the end of last year. I mean, they just pulled the rug out from underneath these guys. And it’s a great example of making make just make sure you’ve got some insurance and you know, what, if it doesn’t pay off, that’s great. You know, you’re not always upset when your fire insurance on your house doesn’t pay off either. You know?
That’s exactly right. And you think back to that rug poll last fall, they sold off for really no reason not a whole lot change on the fundamental landscape this year. I think there’s probably some some different catalysts that can do that.
Yeah, right. Good. Great point, as usual, thank you very much. That’s Oliver Sloup. He’s with blue line futures up in Chicago. Bring it back here. Nashville, Indiana big time
Oliver Sloup vice president and co founder of blue line futures. Join me on my journey for this year’s Pro Farmer craft tour August 21, to the 24th. I’ll be on the eastern leg, which starts in Ohio goes through Indiana, Illinois, into Iowa and up to Minnesota. I’ll be sending out my normal daily grain market commentary as well special updates from the findings on my route throughout the day. So sign up for these updates by filling out the form on this page. And we’ll send you one of the best looking koozies around and I love corn koozie because who doesn’t love corn? Thank you, and I look forward to you joining me on my journey.

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