Can Livestock Futures Continue to Rally?

Live Cattle

Technicals (October – V) October live cattle were able to surge higher yesterday on the back of August futures narrowing the gap with the cash trade. If this momentum and conversion continues, we could see October futures retest the top end of the range that dates back to March, 187.60-188.55. Below is an hourly chart of October live cattle, dating back to that March high. Seasonal weakness into August (as depicted in the second chart below has us leaning on the bearish side against resistance. A clean break and close above resistance would neutralize that bias.

Cash trade was pretty mute yesterday. Cutouts were softer with choice cuts down .23 to 313.21 and select cuts down 1.67 to 296.66. Daily slaughter was reported at 123k head.

Resistance: 187.60-188.55
Pivot: 185.77-185.87
Support: 181.725-182.25**, 179.60
Below: Hourly chart of October live cattle, dating back to the first week of March.

Below: Seasonal Tendencies for October live cattle. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Feeder Cattle

Technicals (August – Q) August feeder cattle futures were able to stage a nice one-day rally in yesterday’s trade, whether or not we will see follow-through is still TBD. If the Bulls can get out above last week’s highs near 260, we would be looking for a retest of trendline resistance which comes in from 262.25-263.30.

Resistance: 259.65-260.25, 262.25-263.00*
Pivot: 256.125-256.70
Support: 253.40-254.35*, 250.80-251.125
Below: Daily chart of August feeder cattle, dating back to November.

Below: Seasonal Tendencies for September feeder cattle. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Lean Hogs

Technicals (October – V) A V bottom has propelled October lean hogs higher for 8 of the last 9 sessions, taking prices back to trendline resistance and our 4-star resistance pocket from 76.50-77.25 (the market settled at 77.125). If you’ve been long the market from lower prices you may consider reducing exposure at these levels. With that said, if the Bulls can keep the momentum going and close above 78.75, the next significant resistance would come in from 81.80-82.00.

Resistance: 78.75, 81.80-82.00**
Pivot: 76.50-77.25
Support: 74.55-75.00, 72.42-72.475

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