Live Cattle

Technicals (October – V) October live cattle have been treading water on trendline support from the April lows and the 20-day moving average for about two straight weeks. Will Friday’s Cattle on Feed report be the catalyst to help these technical levels be defended, our early vote would be yes (for now). The first hurdle for the Bulls comes in at Friday’s high, 184.07, above that is a more significant resistance pocket from 185.77-185.87. If we do get a nice rally to start the week, we would likely view it as an opportunity for those who need protection to get it, or to play it to the short side. On top of looming headline risk, we are approaching a time of year that has lent hand to weaker prices over the years (past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results). The second chart below is a look at seasonal average prices for October live cattle over the last 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 years.

Cattle on Feed Report Summary: Cattle on Feed Report – Blue Line Futures

  • Resistance: 185.77-185.87**, 187.60-188.55
  • Pivot: 184.07
  • Support: 181.725-182.25**, 179.60

Feeder Cattle


Technicals (August – Q) August feeder cattle futures were threatening a breakdown below trendline support in Friday’s trade, that line in the sand comes from the lows from the first week of December. A break and close below there could spark a more bearish short term trend. Seasonally speaking (past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results), we are nearing a time of year that has seen weakness in the past. The second chart below is a look at seasonal averages for October feeders over the last 5, 10, 15,20, and 30 years.

  • Resistance: 262.25-263.00, 264.75-265.75
  • Pivot: 256.125-256.70
  • Support: 253.40-254.35*, 250.80-251.125

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