Wheat is trading with mixed action on your Monday morning, as spring wheat is continuing to lead the bull charge. Futures were swimming against the bearish tide on Friday, or perhaps unwinding some inter-market spreads. In any event, all three US markets were higher. Chicago futures settled 5 to 8 cents higher. Kansas City contracts were up 5 ¼ to 7 ¾ for the day. MPLS spring wheat continued its mini-rally, up 8 ¾ to 9 ¼ on the day.
FranceAgriMer estimates the French soft wheat crop at 52% gd/ex, a 5% drop from the week prior. Last year was 80%. The crop is now 14% harvested, compared to 51% last year and an average at 43%. The Russian Ag Ministry is working hard to push export sales right now, cutting the export tax to 1,540.40 rubles (about 13.5%) and effective through July 31. IKAR is expecting Russian wheat exports to slow to 55 MMT, but the effects of smaller production on exports are more likely to be observed in the second half of the marketing year after the big piles (figurative) are gone.
The Friday afternoon Commitment of Traders report from CFTC showed the managed money spec funds drifting more bearish during the week, adding 6,749 contracts to their Chicago net short and 3,085 contracts to their net short in KC HRW futures during the week ending July 16.
Sep 24 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.42 3/4, up 7 1/2 cents, currently up 1 ½ cents
Dec 24 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.68, up 8 cents, currently up 1 ¼ cents
Sep 24 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.70, up 7 1/4 cents, currently down ¼ cents
Dec 24 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.86 3/4, up 7 3/4 cents, currently down ½ cents
Sep 24 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.09 3/4, up 9 1/4 cents, currently up 4 ¾ cents
Dec 24 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.29 1/2, up 9 1/4 cents, currently up 3 ¼ cents
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