Is it Golds time to Shine?

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Transcript: that's not relevant, I guess. All right, gold getting lifted to a record high amid rising rate cut hopes. However, despite the high rate environment, the precious metal has soared nearly 20%. This year for more on the runway ahead for gold, we've got Bill Baruch, Blue Line futures president and Bill. It's interesting here because, you know, on the one hand we see so called digital gold, crypto, Bitcoin surging, but that's more because a Trump administration is seen as being more favorable to it. Gold, it's just gold as it's seen as a haven. So I didn't talk what is going on here, explain it to us.
I mean, you're getting the some some that haven as some economic data has begun to deteriorate. I think the latest push on the heels of the CPI data that did so saw show a little bit of disinflation. Now, I think too, as the Fed is being priced into cut rates, I've been saying three cuts pretty much all year, and you're starting to see that third cut appear with a better than 50% probability. Once they start to cut, they typically kind of stay at it. And gold is average, a 6% return within the first 30 days of a Fed cut. So I think we're starting to see maybe some of that pulled forward a bit. But listen with with Trump probabilities of taking the White House improving and becoming the favorite, you know, some of the policy we could see as a, you know, trying to weaken the dollar. And if that's the case, gold is priced in US dollars, and in at least the way we're looking at it, and that would increase the price. I think that's also a tailwind, maybe a tailwind for Bitcoin. But I think it's also a tailwind for gold right. Now.
Can I ask you about? I'm just curious, you know, we're talking about the metal, what do you see with the miners as well,
this is the miners are trading at two year highs, I mean, they're really starting to starting to move pretty nicely. I'm liking what we're seeing in in the mining space to know what the energy space saw in 2021, this summer 2021, when crude oil finally got back above $70, a lot of the energy names were really lagging. And once they woke up, I mean, it's been a terrific move across the energy space and in the names over the last couple of years. And I think that we were about the onset of that time. Now it's finally kind of coming out of the doldrums, the mining, the mining stocks are waking up. And there really could be a long lasting bull market at the moment.
One of the other things you've been watching is the ratio of gold to silver here. And so we have a chart of that as well. And largely, you know, we have seen gold sort of outperforming for most of the year here. What does that How do you look at them relative to each other? And what does that tell you?
That gold chart is gold with silver as a denominator. So as silver improves at a faster pace than gold, you're going to see that chart show weakness. And that's actually a good thing for gold and silver, because you know, when silver is woken up and maybe not leading but when it's trading Well, that's that's really bullish for the complex. Over the past few days, we've seen gold diverge a bit and take the strength. And that's why we've seen that chart kind of rebound. Now within that break down in May is when silver tested $33. Ultimately Silver's really trading, you know, trading on a lag to gold more than anything, and we just had that really that rush of above 30, where it tested 33, middle early part of May. But I think gold should I mean, silver should be trading 35 to $40 with gold what it's doing. So there could be a bit of a catch up trade here. And that's really how they work best is when they're working together. So if silver can really wake up a bit and and play a little bit of catch up into $35 we have at that point would certainly have a clear breakout in gold and some of my technicals looking back at this decade long consolidation and gold can really say that gold should be testing 28 $2,900 When this move is said and done.
Well, you know, we're talking about different variables affecting affecting the metals here.
What about seasonality bills is generally you know, typically supportive time for metals. Yeah, absolutely. I mean, you look at the prior month finishing up in June is is sometime a lagging time for metals and and they don't perform but when the onset of July takes place, it's usually game on and we see see really strength into the autumn and I think that's something that we've begun to see the precious metals, but he looked more industrial copper hasn't performed very well. It's really struggled. Some of the others like platinum and palladium certainly aluminum is looking pretty ugly right now. I think they all can turn one of the reasons why they the more industrial spaces lag is look at Chinese GDP earlier this week on Sunday night us time we saw Chinese GDP Miss expectations and the Chinese yuan is continued to weaken against the US dollar. It's certainly sort of exporting deflation I'm from China in the sense that weighs on the metals, specifically the industrial metals, which also more than 50% of Silver's use is now industrial. And although it is a precious metal and follows gold, you know, Copper has fallen pretty sharply from where it was about two months ago, a month and a half ago. And, you know, right now, that's been weighing on silver relative to gold.
Bill, always great to have you on the show. Thanks so much for making time for us. Thanks for having me. 

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