The wheat market is posting double digit lower trade on Monday morning. Futures failed to look past the bearish USDA data on Friday, as all three exchanges headed lower. Chicago futures closed out the day with contracts down 8 ¾ to 20 ½ cents. Net new selling was noted, with preliminary OI up 2,397 contracts. Kansas City futures contracts posted losses of 7 to 16 cents at Friday’s settlement. MPLS spring wheat futures saw losses of 11 ¾ to 21 ¼ cents.
USDA’s balance sheet update for the 2023/24 US wheat crop showed a carryout of 702 mbu, as exports were taken down to 707 mbu. To make the numbers fit. For the new crop, the balance sheet is looking less friendly than a month ago, with USDA raising the stocks by 98 mbu to 856 mbu. Some of that was a larger carryover, but most came via increased production.
USDA raised the wheat crop by 133 mbu to 2.008 bbu, as both harvested acres and average yield were raised (by 2.4 bpa to 51.8 bpa). Winter wheat was up 46 mbu to 1.341 bbu, as the HRW total was projected at 763 mbu (+37 mbu), with SRW at 344 mbu (+2 mbu) and white winter at 234 mbu (+8 mbu). The initial other spring wheat figure was tallied at 577.8 mbu, more than 56 mbu above the trade estimates.
Wheat stocks for the world were raised by 4.97 MMT to 257.24 MMT, with the bulk from the US, as both Canadian and Argentine wheat production were raised.
The weekly CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed CBT wheat spec traders net short 69,137 contracts as of July 9, a 4,837 contract reduction on the week. In KC wheat, they were trimming 2,292 contracts to 40,811 contracts by July 9.
Sep 24 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.50 3/4, down 20 1/2 cents, currently down 16 1/4 cents
Sep 24 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.67 3/4, down 16 cents, currently down 16 1/4 cents
Sep 24 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.97 1/2, down 21 1/4 cents, currently down 11 1/4 cents
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