Pure Hedge - Livestock and Grain

7/12/24

     August’24 Live Cattle were 12 ½ cents higher today and settled at 182.37 ½. Today’s high was 183.05 and the 1-month high is 188.25. Today’s low was 181.05 and the 1-month low is 176.85. Since 6/12 August’24 Live Cattle are 4.22 ½ higher or close to 4 ½%. The Feeders looked good. August’24 Feeder Cattle were 2.50 higher today and settled at 258.65. Today’s high was 259.22 ½ and the 1-month high is 263.90. Today’s low was 254.97 ½ and the 1-month low is 253.45. Since 6/12 August’24 Feeder Cattle are 1.17 ½ higher or almost ½%. The Hogs finished strong, after an awful start to the week. August’24 Lean Hogs were 1.77 ½ higher today and settled at 88.45. Today’s high was 89.35 and the 1-month high is 92.42 ½. Today’s low was 87.22 ½ and the 1-month low is 83.67 ½, that is also the 52-week low. Since 6/12 August’24 Lean Hogs are 1.50 lower or just over 1 ½%. The Livestock Markets were all higher again today. The Feeder Cattle have quietly climbed higher the last two days, after dropping over nine dollars the previous four trading days. Meat imports to China, the first half of the year were down almost 13 ½%. The WASDE Report was released today, but there was not much action. The Report showed that Beef production was raised with more than expected Steer and Heifer slaughter, more than offsetting the lower Cow slaughter numbers. There were not any changes to the Beef trade forecast numbers for 2025. August Live Cattle held firm at 181.05 after several attempts to break through. If it does get through 180.82 ½ next week, I would expect a move lower, down to 178.04 quickly. August'24 Feeders had a wide range of 4.25 today, and traded 259.22 ½ on the day's highs, back to within a dollar of the 260 level. August'24 Hogs managed to climb out of the ditch, and erased Wednesday's big losses. August'24 Hogs have gained 3.77 ½ over the last two days. I am still Bearish the Cattle Markets. 

     November’24 Soybeans were 2 ½ cents lower today and settled at 1065 ¼. Today’s high was 1073 ½ and the 1-month high is 1161. Today’s low was 1059 ½ and that is also the new 1-month and 52-week contract low. Since 6/12 November’s Soybeans are 77 ¾ cents lower or almost 7%. The Corn rallied today. December’s Corn was 4 cents higher today and settled at 414 ¾. Today’s high was 416 ½ and the 1-month high is 478. Today’s low was 403 and that is also the new 1-month low and 52-week contract low. Since 6/12 December’s Corn is 52 ½ cents lower or more than 11%. The Wheat Market continued its decline. September’ we Wheat was 20 ½ cents lower today and settled at 550 ¾. Today’s high was 571 ½ and the 1-month high is 644 ¾. Today’s low was 550 and that is also the new 1-month low and the 52-week contract low. Since 6/12 September’s Wheat is 83 ½ cents lower or more than 13%. The Corn and Beans bounced after the WASDE Report was released.  Prior to the report, the Corn, Beans and Wheat all set new 52-week contract lows. The Wheat Market has been on a dive lower, and I feel that can change next week. I still feel that the Soybeans will continue to break, and if there are bounces in the Market, I would sell into them. I believe the Corn Market has a great chance to rally next week and through the summer. If the Wheat does turn around, I feel that will bring the Corn up with it. The Corn needs to be separated from the Soybeans, because I still feel the Beans are heading to $10.00 or lower. Have a great weekend. 

-Bill

Walsh Gamma Trader

BILL ALLEN JULY 13, 2024

7/12/24

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-Bill

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