Corn bulls got one of the more friendly USDA reports the market has seen in a while, but bears are trying to defend their large spec net short position. Overall, futures are up fractionally to 4 cents so far on the day.
The monthly WASDE update showed old crop corn stocks at 1.877 million bushels, down 145 mbu from June. That was on a 75 mbu hike to both exports and feed and residual, and was 120 mbu below the low end of expectations (as the average called for a 27 mbu increase). For new crop, USDA pegged a 5 mbu cut to the carryout at 2.097 bbu, on the lower carryover and an expected increase to production. The balance sheet took the 91.5 million planted and 83.4 million harvested acres from Junes Acreage report, as production was up 240 mbu to 15.100 bbu with yield left at 181 bpa.
On the world side of the equation, the WAOB showed Brazilian 2023/24 production at 122 MMT unchanged from last month. That is still above the 115.86 MMT from CONAB’s estimate on Thursday but below the 125.56 MMT projection from Safras & Mercado. For the 2024/25, USDA was still at 127 MMT, with the initial Safras number pegged at 134.92 MMT. The Argentina 23/24 crop was down 1 MMT to 52 MMT. World ending stocks for the 23/24 marketing year were down 3.26 MMT to 309.13 MMT, as new crop was up 0.87 to 311.64 MMT and in line vs. expectations of an increase.
Jul 24 Corn is at $4.00, down 6 3/4 cents,
Nearby Cash is at $3.92 3/4, up 3/4 cent,
Sep 24 Corn is at $4.01, up 3/4 cent,
Dec 24 Corn is at $4.13, up 2 1/4 cents,
New Crop Cash is at $3.77 1/2, up 1 1/4 cents,
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