USDA Report: 11:00am CT
This morning’s USDA report is scheduled to be released at 11am CT, hopefully the USDA has their stuff* together and there are no issues with that (we aren’t holding our breath). Below are some of the estimates for US production and old/new crop ending stocks. Arguably more important than the actual numbers will be the markets response to the numbers. If you are looking for short-term protection or exposure ahead of the report, new crop weekly options that expire today or next Friday may be something to consider.
Corn
Technicals (December) Though yesterday was a higher close, it was nothing to get excited about. Below is a look at an hourly chart of December corn futures where you can clearly see another failed attempt at our pivot pocket from 412-412 3/4. This continues to be the first hurdle the Bulls need to overcome on a closing basis to spur additional relief via short covering. Until then, the Bears remain comfortable in their bias. Important to note that there has been a lot of damage done on the chart, so a close above the pivot pocket wouldn’t make them (Bears) uncomfortable but may lead them to consider reducing risk and taking profits.
- Bias: Neutral/Bullish
- Resistance: 420-422, 430-434**
- Pivot: 412-412 3/4
- Support: 398-400**
Soybeans
Technicals (November) November soybean futures traded on both sides of unchanged yesterday, some might call that a silver lining, but after such a sharp selloff in the prior 3 sessions, you’d expect a bigger bounce. So, we’d still label it as a disappointment. As you can see from the one-hour chart of November soybeans below, the trend is still clearly lower. To start to neutralize some of that negativity, the Bulls first need to see prices stabilize above 1071 3/4-1076. As mentioned with corn, this isn’t a trend changing pivot pocket, but it would be the first step in repairing some of the damage that has been done over the last week.
- Bias: Neutral/Bullish
- Resistance: 1085 1/2-1087 1/2, 1097-1102*
- Pivot: 1071 3/4-1076
- Support: 1061 1/2-1062 3/4
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