Soybeans dropped out of the report’s release, but firmed up into the close. New crop futures finished the day above the $12/bu mark with 5 to 8 cent losses. The old crop market also firmed up for the close, but were still down by 11 to 12 ¼ cents for the day and 32 cents for the week. Soymeal futures ended the day with $0.10 to $1.50 losses across the front months. March meal was down by nearly $10/ton at the day’s low. Soy oil futures ended the Friday session with 43 to 47 point losses, leaving the March contract at a net 62 point gain for the week. As a reminder the market is closed on Monday for Martin Luther King jr Day. USDA lowered the cash average price by 15 cents to $12.75, the soy oil cash average price was 3 cents lower to 54 c/lb, and soymeal was $10 weaker to $380.
Commitment of Traders data released after the close had soybean spec traders adding shorts during the week that ended 1/9. That strengthened their net short by 19.6k contracts to 31,248. Commercial soybean hedgers were adding longs during the week, reducing their net short by 14k to 64k contracts. The funds had exited 16.8k longs and added 15.8k new shorts in soymeal during the week that ended 1/9. That reduced their net long to 10,461 contracts. The specs were net new buyers in soybean oil for the week, which reduced their net short to 46,08 contracts.
Traders are looking for NOPA members to report between 189 mbu and 193.2 mbu for December’s crush. The average trade guess is to see 193.12 mbu, which would be up 2.2% from November and 8.8% from Dec ’22.
The monthly domestic S&D update from USDA had soybean acreage down by 400k to 82.4 million, but yield up by 0.7 bpa to 50.6. That raised soybean production by 36 mbu to 4.165 billion. The average trade guess going into the report was to see a 7.2 mbu trim. USDA made no changes to the demand side (save a 3 mbu reduced residual figure) leaving carryout at 280 mbu.
NASS data showed 3 bbu of soybeans were counted on Dec 1. That included 1.453 bbu on farms and 1.547 bbu off farms. The trade was looking to see 2.977 bbu on average going into the report. After revising both production and carry-in, the implied Q1 usage was 1.459 bbu compared to 1.548 bbu last year.
World soybean S&Ds were fairly similar to the Dec report on net, with 100k MT larger production and 390k MT looser carryout. USDA cut Brazil’s soybean output by 4 MMT to 157. CONAB had lowered their Brazilian soybean production figure by 4.9 MMT to 155.3 MMT in their January report, and the IGC had Brazil 5 MMT lower at 155. Argentina production was 2 MMT larger to 50 MMT. The trade was looking for a 700k MT increase going in. The Rosario Exchange just hiked their Argentine estimate to 52 MMT.
Mar 24 Soybeans closed at $12.24 1/4, down 12 1/4 cents,
Nearby Cash was $11.66 1/2, down 13 1/8 cents,
May 24 Soybeans closed at $12.35 3/4, down 12 1/4 cents,
Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $12.44 1/4, down 11 3/4 cents,
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Disclosure Policy here.
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