“Shootin’ The Bull”
End of Day Market Recap
by Christopher Swift
1/11/2024
Live Cattle:
Tremendous indecision in the cattle market. The weather is anticipated to impact cattle, but probably more so impact the packer to want to extend the slaughter into Saturdays for a couple of weeks to catch up. I think this will keep a firm tone under fats. The futures traders remain very skeptical about taking on your risk. Especially at any premium. Going into a 3 day weekend, after a major grain report and snow storm bearing down on cattle country, it is not difficult to see the stress both producers and futures traders are under. At this time, I continue to anticipate a firm tone under fats.
Feeder Cattle:
Here is where the futures trader is needed the most, and appears the most reluctant to do anything. I have heard the extremes from both sides of the anticipated future from "not enough money left to buy cattle", to "bid them until you get them". Once again, prices for some recently traded cattle project exceptional losses as fats, suggesting a great need for an exceptional price rally in fats. Nonetheless, feed costs are anticipated to continue to subside, with great potential for further deflation, as today's CPI and jobless claims still show inflation.
Hogs:
Hogs were higher again today. I have to laugh to keep from crying on how strongly I believe my analysis, versus how silly the higher price makes the analysis seem. In my minds eye, I see the Great and Powerful Oz, pulling the strings on his computer directly opposite of my analysis. Again, this is an analysis that may well be dead wrong, but I don't see how just yet.
Corn:
Corn and soybeans remain weak. Tomorrow's report is anticipated to show a lot of grain to move with tales of a lot of unpriced grain in storage. Both beans and corn have continued lower with the looming report well known was coming. I have no doubt the computers will wreak havoc for a couple of minutes, until their Algorithms are satisfied. After that, I would look for the major grain companies to begin trading in a manner that reflects farmer selling.
Energy:
The hyper volatility in energy continues. There is no rest for the weary in attempting to find a direction for energy.
Bonds:
Bonds sold off sharply when the CPI and jobless claims data was released. Wave 4 continues to unfold.
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