Soybeans are trading 5 ½ to 7 ¾ cents firmer in early Thursday market activity. Front month soybean prices fell another 11 ¼ to 12 ¾ cents on Wednesday. The new crop futures were also weaker but by 2 ¾ to 8 ½ cents on the day. Soymeal futures were down by $3.30 to $4.70 on the day, leaving the March contract $80.80 cheaper than it was at the November high. Soy oil futures ended the day with losses, though by at most as 20 to 26 points.
Weekly soybean Export Sales are expected to be reported between 325k MT and 950k MT for the week that ended 1/4. New crop soybean bookings are expected to be below 50k MT for the week. Meal sales are estimated to be between 75k MT and 400k MT.
CONAB lowered their Brazilian soybean production figure by 4.9 MMT to 155.3 MMT in their Jan report. That came via area shifts (Parana +50k HA, Mato Grasso -85k HA) and via lower yields. National yield was trimmed the equivalent of 1.6 bpa to 51 bpa, compared to 52.2 LY. Mato Grasso and Minas Gerais were trimmed the most relative to Dec the Dec figure.
Pre-report estimates show analysts expect the WAOB to cut Brazil’s soybean forecast by at least 1 MMT to as much as 8.2 MMT, with 156.7 MMT representing the average trade guess. Argentina’s output is expected to increase by 700k MT on average, though estimates ranged from UNCH to +2 MMT.
Mar 24 Soybeans closed at $12.36 1/2, down 12 cents, currently up 6 1/2 cents
Nearby Cash was $11.80 1/1, down 12 1/2 cents,
May 24 Soybeans closed at $12.47 1/2, down 11 1/4 cents, currently up 6 1/4 cents
Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $12.55 1/4, down 11 1/4 cents, currently up 5 3/4 cents
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