Corn Gives Back Overnight Gains into Day Trades

Front month corn futures are working back near UNCH after March traded in a 3 ½ cent range from -½ to +3 cents overnight. Old crop corn futures were mixed on Wednesday with a ¼ cent gain for March and a ¾ cent loss for July. New crop prices ended the session ¾ cents in the red. 

Trade ideas for USDA’s weekly Export Sales report this morning run between 400k MT and 1 MMT of old crop corn booked during the week that ended ¼ and included New Year’s Day. 

CONAB cut their estimate for Brazil’s corn production 925k MT, via a reduced area for 1st crop. CONAB had 1st crop output at 24.4 MMT, with 91.2 MMT expected for 2nd crop and a 23/24 total output of 117.6 MMT. That is down from 132 MMT last year and is 11.4 MMT below the December USDA figure. 

Analysts expect USDA will reduce the Brazilian corn crop by 2.5 MMT on average to 126.5 MMT on Friday. With delayed and replanted soybeans, the Brazilian 2nd corn crop is expected to get a late start as well. Pre-report estimates for Argentina range from a 1.5 MMT cut to a 1 MMT boost with 54.8 (-200k) MMT representing the average trade guess.

Weekly ethanol production rose, to an average of 1.062 million barrels per day.  Corn use for ethanol is running about 7% above year ago, while USDA was looking for a full year gain of about 3% in December. 

Mar 24 Corn  closed at $4.59 1/2, up 1/4 cent, currently UNCH

Nearby Cash   was $4.33 3/8, up 5/8 cent,

May 24 Corn  closed at $4.71 1/2, unch, currently down 1/4 cent

Jul 24 Corn  closed at $4.81 1/4, down 3/4 cent, currently down 1/4 cent

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