Front month soybean prices fell another 11 ¼ to 12 ¾ cents on Wednesday. The new crop futures were also weaker but by 2 ¾ to 8 ½ cents on the day. Soymeal futures were down by $3.30 to $4.70 on the day, leaving the March contract $80.80 under the November high. Soy oil futures ended the day with losses, though by at most as 20 to 26 points.
Weekly soybean bookings are expected to be reported between 325k MT and 950k MT for the week that ended 1/4. New crop soybean bookings are expected to be below 50k MT for the week. Meal sales are estimated between 75k MT and 400k MT.
CONAB lowered their soybean production figure by 4.9 MMT to 155.3 MMT in their Jan report. That came via area shifts (Parana +50k HA, Mato Grasso -85k HA) and via lower yields. National yield was trimmed the equivalent of 1.6 bpa to 51 bpa, compared to 52.2 LY. Mato Grasso and Minas Gerais were trimmed the most relative to Dec the Dec figure.
Pre-report estimates show analysts expect the WAOB to cut Brazil’s soybean forecast by at least 1 MMT to as much as 8.2 MMT, with 156.7 MMT representing the average trade guess. Argentina’s output is expected to increase by 700k MT on average, though estimates ranged from UNCH to +2 MMT.
AgRural reported soybean harvest at 6% finished for the Center-South Region of Brazil. That compares to 0.4% at the same time last year. Overall Brazilian harvest is less than 1% completed. Safras y Mercado estimated the Brazilian soybean crop at 151.4 MMT, down from their 158.2 MMT forecast in December and now 4.1% lower yr/yr.
Analysts are looking for NASS to report 2.976 bbu for Dec 1 bean stocks. That would be 1.5% tighter than last year with a 3% lighter supply total – barring adjustments to crop size or imports.
Mar 24 Soybeans closed at $12.36 1/2, down 12 cents,
Nearby Cash was $11.80 1/1, down 12 1/2 cents,
May 24 Soybeans closed at $12.47 1/2, down 11 1/4 cents,
Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $12.55 1/4, down 11 1/4 cents,
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