Soybeans are ½ to 4 ½ cents per bushel higher in early Monday market action, led by nearby July. Bean futures were down 9 ¼ to 20 ¾ on Friday, with the old crop contracts giving back nearly all of their impressive Thursday gains. Preliminary open interest shows long liquidation, dropping 13,200 contracts. The Goldman Roll is in theory open interest neutral, but somebody was getting out of July big time and not going to the back months. Soymeal futures settled $2.10 to $2.60 lower, with nearby July $6 above the low of the day. Soy Oil futures were down 71 to 72 points on an “inside day” technically. July BO settled 2 cents per pound (200 points) lower for the week.
CFTC Commitment of Traders data for the week ending June 4 showed the managed money spec funds increasing their soybean net short by 45,524 contracts, taking it 59,741 contracts (futures + options).
Trade estimates for Wednesday’s USDA reports average 346-350 million bushels for old crop US soybeans and 448-457 million for new crop. On average, traders are looking for a 2 MMT drop in Argentine corn production and little to no change in the 50 MMT soybean number released in May. The average trade guess for Brazilian corn is down 1 MMT to 121 MMT and down 2.2 MMT for soybeans to 151.8.
Oilseed processing association NOPA announced corrections for April NOPA crush, revising it upward to 169.436 million bushels from 166.034 million. NOPA member oil stocks were increased to 1.832 billion lbs from 1.755 billion.
Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $11.79 1/4, down 20 3/4 cents, currently up 4 1/2
Nearby Cash was $11.22 3/4, down 20 1/2 cents,
Aug 24 Soybeans closed at $11.76 3/4, down 16 3/4 cents,
Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $11.57 3/4, down 9 1/4 cents, currently up 3/4 cent
New Crop Cash was $11.01 7/8, down 9 1/8 cents,
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Disclosure Policy here.
Disclaimer: The copyright of this article belongs to the original author. Reposting this article is solely for the purpose of information dissemination and does not constitute any investment advice. If there is any infringement, please contact us immediately. We will make corrections or deletions as necessary. Thank you.
